Europe Commercial Property Update European investment slowdown intensifying An acceleration of the slowdown in European commercial property investment in Q3 is evidence that economic growth concerns, higher interest rates and tightening credit standards are weighing heavily... 28th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3 2022) The unexpected resilience of Germany’s economy in Q3, with GDP rising 0.3% q/q, has probably only postponed the recession which we now expect to begin in the fourth quarter. Business surveys show that... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect a big further rally in core EZ government bonds Despite some dovish elements in today’s ECB policy announcement, we still think “core” government bond yields in the euro-zone will stay fairly high even if, as we expect, yields begin to tumble... 27th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pace of hikes to slow, but deposit rate will still hit 3% After raising rates by 75bp today, the ECB laid the groundwork for a slower pace of tightening to come. But we still think that the deposit rate will reach 3% next year. And while the Bank will set... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Helsinki office vacancy to edge higher Helsinki office vacancy jumped in Q3 and is likely to trend higher over the next couple of years as occupier demand weakens, completions rise and there are fewer office-to-residential conversions. As... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Market strains create new dilemmas for central banks As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (September) Money and lending growth accelerated in September, but the latest Bank Lending Survey revealed that there was a sharp drop in loan demand and that banks have become much more cautious about lending... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Europe’s natural gas price will be higher next year We expect European natural gas prices to be high in 2023 as the EU will need to replace Russian gas supply for the entire year. This means demand for LNG imports will be strong, even if gas... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index held up better than expected in October but was still extremely low. With other business surveys also persistently weak, we think Germany will experience the deepest... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (October) 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Europe’s renewables push to stoke “greenflation” Although the energy crisis in Europe has dealt a blow to the EU’s near-term green ambitions, a combination of economic incentives, NextGenEU funding, and geopolitical expediency will cause the bloc to... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: moderate finance minister won’t save BTPs Italy’s new government may initially steer clear of major fiscal loosening, but it will have to provide some more support to cushion the blow from the energy crisis. Given Italy’s fiscal... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Athens rent growth to slow but will outpace euro-zone We have downgraded our expectations for Athens prime rental growth over the next two years on the back of a weaker outlook for economic activity. However, with the Greek economy still expected to be... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
