UK Economics Update UK civil service job cuts won't dent labour market much The suggestion that the Chancellor may be considering cutting 50,000 civil service job cuts wouldn’t weigh on employment growth much over the next few years. Only if the government were to cut public... 2nd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (May) The fall in the manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month suggest that US tariffs may be holding back the region’s industrial sectors. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2025) April’s money and lending figures provided little indication that the US trade war and the deteriorating jobs market prevented consumers’ willingness to borrow and spend from rising. This supports our... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Polish Presidential Election (2nd Round) The victory for Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the nationalist opposition party, in Poland’s presidential election will continue to stymie the government’s efforts to push through its reform agenda... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (May 2025) May’s 0.5% m/m increase in Nationwide house prices adds to the evidence that the recent soft patch for the housing market was a temporary blip rather than a longer-lasting downturn as a result of the... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Evidence pointing to a weak Q2 UK GDP growth will almost certainly slow in Q2 after Q1’s bumper rise, irrespective of the outcome of the US tariff legal saga. Falls in business investment and exports will probably offset rises in... 30th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Poland’s election could unlock (or block) reform drive A victory for the candidate of the ruling coalition, Rafał Trzaskowski, in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday would remove a key roadblock to the government’s efforts to improve the independence... 30th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU-US deal prospects, German government priorities The latest legal twists in the US tariff saga have raised the risk of further increases in sectoral tariffs, which could be particularly damaging for Germany and Ireland. Nevertheless, our base case... 30th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: RIP IRA?; US solar stocks sink; EU-UK ETS linkage President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” that would significantly restrict access to tax credits provided under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is one step closer to becoming reality, which adds to... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is US equity exceptionalism back for good? We’re nudging up our forecasts for equities in most non-US developed markets, partly in response to our upwardly revised projections for the S&P 500. But we still think they’ll lag equities in the US... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Europe in a changing world Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, like all things in Europe, the subsequent changes are likely to be slow and deliberate. Europe will “derisk” from China in... 30th May 2025 · 23 mins read
UK Economics Update Spending pressures to lead to higher UK taxes and borrowing U-turns on benefit and welfare spending, increased pressure to ramp up defence spending and higher borrowing costs have left the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, in a sticky position. If she wishes to avoid... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU carbon market surplus keeps prices in check The surplus in the EU carbon market dampened incentives to decarbonise in 2024, and the likelihood that the surplus is maintained until 2027 will keep a lid on carbon prices in the near term. Further... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broad improvement in global risk appetite. But while our base case is that EM markets eke out further gains, the range of... 29th May 2025 · 0 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: At least one more ECB rate cut to come A 25bp interest rate cut next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.0%, looks very likely. But divisions are growing on the ECB about the impact of US trade policy on inflation and therefore the... 29th May 2025 · 8 mins read
