Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (October) Final inflation data for October confirm that price pressures strengthened and became more broad-based. Unlike in the US and UK, there is little sign that goods inflation has passed its peak. While... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think CEE currencies have further to fall than most We think that the currencies of Central and Eastern Europe economies will weaken by more than most over the coming quarters, even if we assume that last night’s flashpoint in the war in Ukraine doesn... 16th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Irish statistical quirks flattering EZ growth rate Euro-zone industrial production and GDP have been stronger than we had expected so far this year. Several factors have contributed to this, but one of them is the distortions to Ireland’s economic... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Renters living alone explain tight rental market The recent surge in rental growth to a record high has been widely reported, but the usual explanations are unsatisfactory. Population indicators don’t suggest a sudden rise in demand, and there is... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rising vacancy will cut London office rents Even as Central London office vacancy rates rose to a 12-year peak in Q3, annual rental growth ticked-up to three-year high. That marks a reversal from the situation prior to COVID-19, when a tight... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) Euro-zone GDP growth slowed to just 0.2% q/q in Q3 and with all of the timelier surveys pointing downwards, the economy looks set to fall into recession in Q4. Nevertheless, surveys of firms’ hiring... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) The unexpected strength of euro-zone industrial production in September was largely due to the rebound in vehicles production and distortions affecting Ireland’s data. While vehicle output may... 14th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Construction cooling, fiscal rules and pivots We think euro-zone financial markets are getting ahead of themselves if they are sensing an imminent “pivot” by the ECB following the lower-than-expected US CPI number released yesterday. Indeed, we... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further declines in store for Paris prime retail rents Falls in Paris prime retail rents are set to continue into 2023 as weaker domestic and foreign spending weigh on tenant demand. And while the prospects for both are brighter for 2024, we think the... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (October) The rise in core inflation in Germany in October confirms that underlying price pressure in the country are still building. We expect the core rate to remain well above 2% throughout next year. 11th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising property yields help valuations stabilise Commercial property valuations began to stabilise in Q3, as a large rise in property yields helped offset a further rise in alternative asset yields. And with the reversal of the “mini-Budget” meaning... 10th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK HY corporate bonds may not stay bottom of the class We doubt the recent underperformance of UK high-yield corporate bonds relative to those in the euro-zone will continue given the relative outlooks for monetary policy and economic growth. 10th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Poland’s central bank (NBP) announced (very late by its usual standards) that it had left interest rates unchanged at 6.75% at today’s MPC meeting, confirming previous comments from policymakers that... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update If it happens at all, ECB QT will be very slow The ECB might start quantitative tightening next year but that’s not guaranteed, and even if it does so we doubt that it will make much of a dent in its government bond holdings. As a result, interest... 9th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Barcelona prime offices to underperform Madrid Spanish office rental values are expected to be harder hit than the euro-zone average as the looming recession weighs on occupier demand and higher interest rates push up yields. However, at a market... 9th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to keep hiking as stagflation intensifies The latest activity indicators show that the economy contracted in October, and the forward-looking measures of new orders and expectations suggest that the downturn will get worse. We have pencilled... 8th November 2022 · 11 mins read
