Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate cut windows (re-)open in Turkey and Hungary Softer inflation suggests that there’s more scope for monetary easing this year in Hungary and Turkey than we had previously thought, and we have pencilled in more rate cuts into our profile. In... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug. 2026) The further fall in Hungarian inflation meant the 25bp interest rate cut (to 5.50%) today was never in doubt and it’s now looking likely that the base rate will be cut well into Q4. We have pencilled... 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (August 2026) Economic growth has generally held up well since the start of the year, albeit with a divergence that is likely to persist in the coming quarters. Poland is likely to be an outperformer while Romania... 25th August 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s tax proposals, climate disruptions persist Poland's latest income and corporate tax proposals reduce the risk of a further widening of the budget deficit next year, but the government is still avoiding the tougher task of tackling a... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: food deflation benefits won’t last Falls in food prices in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this year have helped to keep headline inflation rates in check during the energy shock, but this will reverse before long. Global agricultural... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM wage pressures easing, but pockets of concern EM labour market conditions have softened further this year, with wage growth now back to or below pre-pandemic rates in many places. Inflationary pressures stemming from labour markets have faded... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Danube disruption, temporary damage Hungary and Romania face a near-term electricity supply squeeze due to record-low water levels in the Danube. Our base case is this will be a modest and temporary drag on Q3 GDP that is recouped in Q4... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s energy crisis casts cloud over recovery Low water levels in the Danube are forcing Hungary to take its nuclear power plant offline, prompting officials to urge cuts in energy consumption. The scale of the macroeconomic effects will, of... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q2 2026) The relatively weak 0.4% q/q GDP growth recorded in both Hungary and Czechia in Q2 suggests that both economies weren’t as resilient to the effects of the energy shock as we had anticipated. This... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026) The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) cut its policy rate by another 25bp today, to 5.75%, and we think a backdrop of below-target inflation will allow the MNB to continue easing over the coming months. Our... 21st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly US sanctions talk, Hungary’s constitution, oil prices Renewed momentum in the US to tighten sanctions on Russia, including through the imposition of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy, could add further pressure on the economy and... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CEE inflation, Russia under more strain Inflation data released this week for Czechia and Hungary surprised again to the downside, which supports our view that the Czech central bank’s tightening cycle will be short and that the easing... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE surveys, Tisza budget warning, Russian fuel prices The latest survey data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week painted a mixed picture for June, but the overall story is that GDP growth looks to have strengthened over Q2 as a whole... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s fiscal hole will hold back the recovery The Orbán administration’s pre-election spending splurge is likely to push the Hungarian government’s budget deficit towards 6.5% of GDP (on an ESA basis) by the end of this year. Our judgement is... 2nd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB resumes easing, CNB minutes, Russian industry The sharp downgrade in the Hungarian central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the door is wide open for interest rate cuts. We think inflation won’t be as soft as the central bank projects, but... 26th June 2026 · 6 mins read
