Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy in good shape to weather global downturn The pick-up in Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth in Q3 supports our view that it is on track to be one of the best performers in the MENA region next year. However, the breakdown shows that growth was driven... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf overheating fears fail to materialise The massive fiscal stimulus packages unveiled by Gulf economies in the wake of the Arab Spring raised fears at the time that they would lead to economic overheating and rising inflation. Fortunately... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Nov.) Egyptian financial markets have been battered this month amid a deepening constitutional crisis. 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: two steps forward, one step back It’s been a mixed month for Egypt’s post-revolution economy. The good news is that a $4.8bn programme with the IMF has been agreed at a staff level, paving the way for formal approval by the Fund’s... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown continues Our Saudi Activity Proxy shows that the economic slowdown continued at the end of the last quarter. Overall, it looks like GDP growth slowed to around 2.5% y/y in Q3 from 5.5% y/y in Q2. 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi PMI continues to point to strong non-oil sector October’s PMI data suggest that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continues to grow at a robust pace, but our own activity proxy – based on actual hard data – indicates that the economy has... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Oct.) The arrival of an IMF delegation in Egypt and hopes that a deal will soon be concluded have supported the local equity and bond markets over the past few months. Yet, this isn’t the first time that a... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflationary pressures easing in the Gulf Recent activity data provide further evidence that the Gulf economies are slowing. The good news is that inflationary pressures are easing at the same time. This will boost households’ real incomes... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Price pressures continue to ease in Saudi Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate fell for the seventh consecutive month in September, hitting a three-year low. This will help to ease fears that the economy is overheating, which, in turn... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector struggling to gain momentum Our activity proxy for Saudi Arabia shows that the economy continues to slow, as growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors starts to ease. Overall GDP growth looks like it slowed to around 4% y/y in... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi PMI continues to buck the global trend September’s PMI data suggest that growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continues to accelerate. But this contradicts other activity data, including our own proxy for the non-oil economy. 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Sep.) The combination of an improvement in political conditions and rising hopes of an IMF deal has boosted bond and equity markets in Egypt. But at the same time, the return of foreign investors will... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth starts to slow Political conditions in Egypt have continued to improve in recent months, but the real economy is still struggling. Industrial production has stagnated and strains in the balance of payments persist... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi reports add to downward pressure on oil prices Reports that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase oil supplies may be little new but they support our view that prices are set to fall sharply. As it happens, the Gulf state has already ramped up... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher oil output to provide a boost to Saudi growth Saudi Arabia’s recent commitment to maintain oil output at record levels means that our forecast for GDP growth this year is looking too pessimistic. We now expect the economy to expand by around 4.5%... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, which will help to ease fears that the economy is overheating. 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
