Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of Saudi Arabia’s push for oil output cuts Saudi Arabia’s push for a fresh round of oil output cuts isn’t a done deal and a sustained unilateral cut is unlikely. Even so, it adds to the evidence of a more erratic approach to oil policy under... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi loosens fiscal policy, Tunisia reforms face delay Data released this week confirmed that higher oil prices have prompted Saudi Arabia’s government to loosen fiscal policy further and we expect this to continue over the next few quarters, boosting... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising oil output boosting growth in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy picked up in August on the back of rising oil output. And while the threat of the US imposing sanctions on the Kingdom has clouded the outlook, we still... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi dollar peg to remain intact The fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, appears to have triggered a spike in capital outflows, putting pressure on the riyal. But we think it’s highly unlikely that the Saudi... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Khashoggi scandal, Saudi fiscal slippage, Egypt tourism Saudi Arabia might be patching together a face-saving statement over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khasoggi, but the affair will damage the country’s long-term economic prospects and another... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fresh political shock and oil prices key risks to watch The fallout from the disappearance of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, has supposedly shifted investors’ attention to the Saudi government’s rising debt burden, but we think that these concerns are... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Saudi Arabia unlikely to resort to “oil weapon” We do not expect Saudi Arabia to cut oil production in response to US criticism over a missing journalist, not least because it will want to preserve the “anti-Iran axis” with the US. However, if the... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the sanctions threat The escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and the US over the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is likely to weigh on local financial markets, but the Kingdom is in a strong... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) The latest data suggest that Saudi Arabia is indeed capable of increasing production in order to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Weaker oil demand growth and higher supply from both OPEC... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Missing Saudi journalist makes politics key economic risk The disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul raises fresh questions about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reputation as a reformer and political developments pose a growing... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) Last month’s PMI data paint a mixed picture in the Gulf but we expect growth in non-oil sectors to pick up over the coming months on the back of fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, the survey in Egypt... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy to gather momentum Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery gathered pace in Q2 and we think that GDP growth will accelerate further over the coming quarters as oil output rises and fiscal stimulus supports stronger activity in... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi inflation was unchanged between July and August but we still expect it to rise a little over the rest of this year as underlying price pressures pick up. 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s driving stronger Saudi capital outflows? Capital outflows from Saudi Arabia have picked up over the past 18 months, but the bulk of this seems to reflect ongoing foreign investments by the sovereign wealth fund. A bigger concern from the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update We still expect the oil price to fall We think that the worst fears over supply will not be realised and that slower growth in global demand will prompt a significant fall in the oil price in 2019. However, logistical constraints on US... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (August) The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has sufficient spare capacity to increase production if it needed to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Slower growth in demand and higher... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
