Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US mid-terms and the Iran war, Saudi budget deficit The US mid-terms and a flurry of diplomatic activity in the region have reduced the threat of a renewed escalation of the Iran war and also raised hopes that a political solution to the conflict may... 5th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf recovery remains slow and bumpy The latest activity data for the Gulf underline the sluggish nature of the economic recovery underway. And while diplomatic efforts provide hope for an end to the Iran war, there remains a significant... 3rd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diplomacy stepped up, IMF in Egypt, Bahrain support There has been a step-up in diplomatic efforts over the past week to avoid a renewed escalation of the Iran war. While Iran is enduring severe economic pain, regime hardliners may still be willing to... 29th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf energy flows, Egypt’s IMF deal and rate decision Reports this week suggest that crude oil flows from the Gulf have returned to pre-war levels which, if sustained, will boost regional GDP and oil export receipts. But, so long as there is no political... 22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi and UAE lead recovery in latest Gulf PMI data The whole economy PMIs for September show that the Gulf’s recovery is taking shape but is uneven. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are faring strongly. But recoveries in Kuwait and particularly Qatar appear... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Resilience in Gulf credit growth unlikely to last If the Fed hikes interest rates further and oil prices fall back over 2027-28, as we anticipate, the current strength of lending growth in the Gulf is likely to lose steam. That will hold back... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (September '26) A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. Our base case is that a return to pre-war energy exports won’t take place... 29th September 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for sluggish recovery as war rumbles on A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. A return to pre-war energy exports is unlikely until at least early next... 22nd September 2026 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Counting the fiscal cost to the Gulf from the Iran war The disruption to energy flows from the Iran war will cause government budget balances to improve in Oman and the UAE (high prices have more than offset the impact on export volumes). But balances... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt refineries, Qatar’s budget blowout The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war. This raises the risk of a... 10th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Recovery in the Gulf strengthens The whole economy PMIs for August, released today, suggest that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors is taking hold. The UAE and Kuwait saw the strongest increases, and non-oil activity in Saudi... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt at centre of US-China AI tussle, Iran-Oman deal Egypt's decision over whether to have the US or China build a data centre could have ramifications for the country’s broader ties with the two superpowers and provide a framework for other EMs facing... 27th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. '26) The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will hold back a recovery in the Gulf economies. The downside risks to our forecast for a ~3% contraction in GDP... 26th August 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf tourism still struggling Early signs suggest that tourism in the Gulf, particularly intra-GCC travel, is starting to rebound. That benefits Bahrain’s economy more than most. But tourists from outside the region appear more... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran economy under pressure, Egypt rate cuts coming US efforts to squeeze the Iranian economy via the blockade are having some effect, but it remains uncertain whether this will be enough to result in larger concessions from the Iranian regime... 13th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi resilience, hopes for Hormuz re-opening Saudi Q2 budget data showed that high oil prices provided a major cushion for the public finances. But the oil windfall masks the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position over the last 18... 6th August 2026 · 6 mins read
