UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) Although the UK trade deficit widened in January, the big picture is that the external sector is still holding up quite well given the euro-zone debt crisis. But with the euro-zone economy sliding... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further monetary easing in the pipeline The Bank of Japan’s decision to extend its support for lending to “growth sectors” rather than add to its Asset Purchase Program (APP) today appears to have disappointed some but was the outcome that... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices (Feb/Jan) The rise in activity generated by the approaching end of the stamp duty holiday appears to have boosted house price expectations. Whether this is sustained or not is likely to depend on whether the... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are deal volumes in Emerging Europe property markets set to fall? Investment market activity across Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) in the final stages of 2011 was not as weak as the initial estimates suggested. Even so, because of the weak economic outlook for most... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDP growth now likely to reach 2% this year The recent sustained run of stronger economic data, particularly on the labour market, has persuaded us to raise our GDP growth forecast to 2.0% this year, from 1.5%. We are also nudging up our 2013... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How have last year's natural disasters affected Asia? Asia was hit by several natural disasters in 2011, most notably the tsunami that struck Japan in mid- March. These events were foremost human tragedies, but they also had an economic impact. While... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Significant downside risks to the UAE's non-oil economy The UAE’s economy minister has suggested that GDP grew by 3.3% last year, only marginally above growth in 2010 and well below most expectations (CE 3.5%; Consensus 4.0%). We think that tight lending... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mercosur protectionism may have a silver lining for Uruguay Uruguay is undoubtedly one of the major losers from a lurch towards protectionism within the Mercosur block. To the extent that there is a silver lining, however, it is that in the near-term these... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's strong commodity imports not set to last China’s imports of commodities in February were strong, especially in volume terms, but this may have been distorted upwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays and by... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fragile recovery still needs more policy support February’s household survey, released today, suggests that Japan’s consumers still lack confidence in the recovery, while the January data on core machinery orders do not yet justify hopes of a strong... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakian election puts fiscal policy under the spotlight Victory for the left-wing populist Smer party in Slovakia’s parliamentary election this weekend is likely to cause alarm that the commitment to austerity is fraying. While it is undoubtedly necessary... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy remains in troubled waters The markets may currently be giving Italy the benefit of the doubt, but recent data have supported our gloomy view of the economic outlook. We think it may only be a matter of time before Italy is... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflationary pressures mounting in Saudi Arabia and Egypt In contrast to other regions, February’s inflation data from Saudi Arabia and Egypt show that price pressures are mounting. In Saudi, strong domestic demand and favourable base effects are largely to... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Huge trade deficit, but questions too over domestic demand Exports to the US were a bright spot, but the general picture from China’s latest trade data is that global demand is still subdued. What’s more, imports have grown only slightly faster than exports... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012 Preview The Chancellor’s resolve to stick to his austerity plans appears to be as strong as ever. We expect another fiscally neutral Budget, with flagship measures such as another rise in the personal tax... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
