US Economics Weekly Manufacturing outcomes diverging amid tariff cocktail While the latest data show the manufacturing sector struggling as a whole, the patchwork nature of the tariff system means some industries are faring better than others. This divergence could be... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Key themes for global commercial real estate in 2026 As the new year approaches, we are highlighting the key themes that we think will set the overarching narrative for global commercial real estate in 2026. 5th December 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Income & Spending (Sep 2025) The delayed September PCE data showed that monthly core price growth was only marginally above the target-consistent rate, with the annual core inflation rate edging back down to 2.8%. Real... 5th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Dec 2025) Consumer sentiment ends this year a little stronger thanks to the government reopening and the stock-market rally continuing. This should help keep fourth-quarter consumer spending resilient despite... 5th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Nov. 2025) November’s much better-than-expected 53,600 rise in employment marks the third consecutive large consensus-beating gain, confirming that hiring has regained momentum after the initial tariff shock... 5th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Australia & NZ: canaries in the markets coalmine? The market reaction to the apparent ends of the Australian and New Zealand easing cycles could provide a blueprint for how Treasuries and the US dollar will behave as the Fed winds up its own. 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US equities still struggling to be exceptional The US stock market has rebounded close to its all-time high but is struggling to regain the ground it lost to equities elsewhere over the past year. While that was arguably a bad sign in the dotcom... 4th December 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Retail shines in a disappointing recovery Below-trend economic growth and high interest rates will continue to weigh on all-property total returns, which we think will average just 5.5% p.a. over 2026-30. Of the major sectors, we think retail... 4th December 2025 · 21 mins read
US Fed Watch FOMC doves to prevail in contested vote We expect concerns over softening labour market conditions among the doves on the FOMC to win out next week, resulting in another 25bp cut. But in return, the more hawkish members are likely to secure... 3rd December 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar rebound may continue despite Hassett Even if the FOMC cuts the fed funds rate again next week and Kevin Hassett does indeed become the next Fed Chair, we think the dollar rebound over recent months has further to run. 3rd December 2025 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada’s easing cycle over… for now The Bank of Canada is all but guaranteed to keep its policy rate on hold next week, although the weakness of domestic demand and fading core price pressures mean we still expect rates to eventually be... 3rd December 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Nov 2025) The sizeable fall back in the ISM Services prices paid index is consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation remaining elevated next year, but by much less than implied by last month’s release. That... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Sep. 2025) The small rise in industrial production in September and revisions to previous months’ data mean output was unchanged across the third quarter as a whole. With the timelier ISM manufacturing index... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Nov 2025) The modest fall in the ADP payrolls measure in November, coming on the back of a similar message from the Fed’s Beige Book, should be enough to persuade the FOMC to vote for another cut next week... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Nov 2025) The second consecutive decline in mortgage activity in November, as the previous decline in mortgage rates came to an end, supports our view that home sales are unlikely to rise by as much as most... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov. 2025) The further small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in November adds to the evidence that tariffs and related uncertainty are weighing on the factory sector, though not entirely crippling it. 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
