US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Improving data point to September rate hike The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun. 2016) Although housing starts saw a solid rise in June, the bigger picture is that there has been no sustained upward progress in homebuilding activity for over a year now. But we suspect that as credit... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will the number of non-resident foreign buyers continue to drop? As we had expected, the strengthening of the dollar over the past couple of years has weighed on the number of non-resident home buyers. But we doubt the Canadian dollar or renminbi will weaken any... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & Cons. Confidence (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production was better than consensus forecast of a 0.3% m/m gain, primarily because of the stronger-than-expected rebound in manufacturing output. 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Participation rate will fall further The decline in the unemployment rate to an 11-month low of 6.8% in June, from 7.1% as recently as April, is not as good as it looks. It went down primarily because people gave up looking for work not... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market nearing full employment The incoming labour market data, including the strong rebound in June payrolls, have confirmed our suspicions that the big declines in April and May were only a temporary blip rather than the start of... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the plunge in UK gilt yields last? In the wake of the UK’s vote for Brexit on 23rd June, long-term government bond yields have fallen further there than in other developed countries. (See Chart below.) Indeed, the 10-year Gilt yield... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Jun.) The unexpected strength of underlying retail sales in June means that second-quarter GDP growth still appears to have been between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised. Real consumption growth will be 4.0%. At... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) The 1.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales in May was only partly due to the Alberta wildfires and that nominal decline was flattered by a rebound in energy prices. In volume terms, sales fell by a... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Brexit will have limited impact on housing market The shock decision by UK voters to leave the European Union is being felt in the mortgage market. The subsequent sharp drop in 10-year Treasury yields has helped mortgage rates down to close to record... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economic growth already fading again After a brief surge at the start of this year, GDP growth has already slowed markedly in recent months. (See Chart.) Unfortunately, the recent limited rebound in commodity prices won’t be enough to... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada cuts GDP growth forecast The Bank of Canada shocked no-one with its decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.50% today, but we still anticipate that it will eventually be forced to cut rates again, probably in the... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.) When the next edition of Charles Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics and Crashes is released , Canada’s housing market will warrant its own chapter. According to Teranet , the 11-city house price index... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Fewer disruptions to oil supplies should limit price gains The return of production from Canada and Nigeria along with a potential increase in output from Libya over the next few months should put some downward pressure on prices. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal improving labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys add to the sharp rebound in June payrolls as evidence that labour market conditions continue to improve, which should generate a more pronounced acceleration in wage... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
