Canada Data Response International Trade (May) Exports were weaker than expected in May, but that was largely due to the ongoing global semiconductor shortage rather than weakening external demand. And with the rise in imports boding well for... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The stronger 850,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June may be a sign that some of the temporary labour shortages holding back the employment recovery are starting to ease. But with the labour force... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Would US equities beat Treasuries if inflation surged? The received wisdom is that inflation is worse for government bonds than for equities. Yet the S&P 500 has fared worse than 10-year Treasuries in a couple of periods of high inflation in the US since... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (May.) Employment growth in May was positive in all metros, largely driven by gains in the leisure & hospitality sector. This benefited Orlando, Los Angeles and Las Vegas the most, but still left employment... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Labour shortages set to intensify Canadian firms are not currently suffering from labour shortages to the same extent as those in the US but, with immigration still muted, the issue is likely to get worse as the economy continues to... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m decline in GDP in April was smaller than Stats Can initially suggested and implies that, despite the third coronavirus wave, the economy held up relatively well. We now expect second... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Major Apartment Markets Outlook (Q2 2021) With cities reopening apartment demand will see a substantial rise this year, boosted by the arrival of households who delayed a move last year. Vacancy rates will fall back in all six major cities... 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Focus Labour shortages will last well into 2022 The widespread labour shortages evident in the survey data and job opening & quit rates are only partly due to transitory factors, including enhanced unemployment benefits, childcare constraints, and... 29th June 2021 · 17 mins read
Energy Update Rising production to take the sizzle out of Henry Hub Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large... 28th June 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US ISM and payrolls could add fuel to the dollar rally The US dollar seems set to end the week slightly weaker, but has held much of its gains following last Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. With increasing focus on the prospects for monetary tightening... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Student accommodation not set to see a rapid rebound The student accommodation sector faces high levels of uncertainty for the fall 2021 academic year. In our view, demand for student housing will rebound from last year, but fall short of its pre... 25th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rally more important than slump in lumber The dramatic fall in lumber prices over the past month has captured a lot of attention, but it is the more gradual rally in oil prices that is likely to have the greatest bearing on the economic... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed officials split; Biden backs infrastructure deal Fed Chair Jerome Powell stuck to the script in his congressional appearance earlier this week, arguing it was “very, very, unlikely” that the US would experience a return to the high inflation of the... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Price and wage expectations continue to rise The latest CFIB Business Barometer shows that, as the re-opening process got underway, firms’ selling price expectations surged in June. Firms now expect to raise their prices by an average of 4.7%... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Shortages keep speed limit on payrolls We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by about 500,000 again in June, as labour supply shortages continue to roil the market. 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 2.3% m/m rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by another big increase in commercial aircraft orders reflecting the recovery in air travel, with underlying orders weaker than expected... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
