Asset Allocation Update Revisiting the relative valuations of US equities and bonds Although the pull-back in the S&P 500 last month was probably influenced by a sell-off in Treasuries (see here), we don’t subscribe to the view that stocks are in a big bubble that bonds are bound to... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly CMHC sounds the alarm (again) It’s hard to argue against the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) latest warning that house prices look vulnerable to a correction. Indeed, we expect prices to fall in several cities by... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly A week is a long time in politics Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s quip that “a week is a long time in politics”, which he made during one of the UK’s seemingly never-ending crises in the 1960s, aptly describes the Democratic Party’s... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The small rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 61.1 in September, from 59.9, mostly reflects an artificial boost from lengthening supplier delivery times rather than any improvement in demand... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Slowing global growth may continue to help the US dollar We think that the ongoing slowdown in global economic growth points to continued dollar strength, which suggests to us that there is significant upside risk to our already-bullish dollar forecast. 1st October 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) Despite the smaller-than-expected decline in GDP in July and the strong preliminary estimate for August, third-quarter GDP growth still looks to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada predicted, which... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Delta continues to weigh on hiring We forecast a stronger 500,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September. That should qualify as “decent” enough for the Fed to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November FOMC meeting –... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Withdrawal of CRB a risk to consumption Due to the still high household saving rate, we have so far been sanguine about the risks posed by the winding down of benefit payments to households. But with goods shortages limiting the scope for... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A jump in crude oil production led to the first stock build in eight weeks. However, with output still constrained and demand set to remain strong, stocks are likely to remain low for some time to... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think tapering is a big threat to equities We doubt ‘tapering’ of the Fed’s asset purchases over the next year or so would weigh heavily on the US stock market, and forecast that it will make small gains over the next couple of years. 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Aug.) Delta variant fears resulted in leisure and hospitality employment falling in 12 of the 30 metros. Of these, Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte and Dallas were the worst hit. Leisure and hospitality... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Fall in first-time buyers will help boost inventory Soaring house prices and tight credit conditions have pushed the first-time buyer share to a joint six-year low which, alongside strong housing starts, has arrested the decline in the for-sale home... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Which apartment markets will benefit most from remote work? We think that for the extra one million footloose American workers created by the pandemic, the cost of living has become far more important to their decision of where to live than in the past, while... 28th September 2021 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul.) Annual house price growth set another record in July as low mortgage rates, past stimulus payments and a tight market drove values higher. But there are tentative signs that the market is beginning to... 28th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Will US-China decoupling be inflationary? China’s integration into the global economy contributed to the low inflation environment of recent decades. But it was not the major driver and, in any case, China’s integration peaked several years... 28th September 2021 · 25 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q3 2021) With absorption of landlord-held office stock set to remain negative for the foreseeable future, we continue to expect vacancy rates to climb and rents to fall in all six major office markets over the... 27th September 2021 · 16 mins read
