US Data Response Durable Goods, Adv. Trade (Oct.), GDP (Q3 2nd Est.) The 0.5% fall in durable goods orders was not as bad as it looked, given that it was entirely due to a fall in volatile aircraft orders. But the bigger news this morning was the huge 10.7% m/m surge... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown ahead We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a solid 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers look set to weigh on employment growth... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A mild winter doesn’t change our price outlook We have left our near-term forecasts for energy prices (which are historically high) unchanged after reflecting on the latest weather forecasts for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Are migration trends also driving industrial? Data show a vast divergence in performance across the industrial sector over the last year. While some of the strength is consistent with that in the apartment and office sectors, driven by migration... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth picking up The sharp slowdown in the pace of hiring in the October Labour Force Survey caught the headlines, but the more important development was the sharp rise in fixed-weight average hourly earnings. Based... 23rd November 2021 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) Existing home sales eked out a small gain in October, slowing considerably from last month’s increase. With inventory at a record low, buyer sentiment in a pit and mortgage rates on the rise, we... 22nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of potential corporate tax reforms This Update answers several questions on the Biden administration’s latest proposals for US corporate taxes as well as the global tax deal recently agreed among the world’s major economies. The... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Build Back Better to have limited near-term benefits The Build Back Better Act, which was passed by the House today, would provide only a small boost to economic growth next year. With the economy already running up against capacity constraints and any... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural changes weigh on offices more than retail Google mobility data show a much fuller recovery in visitors returning to retail and recreation than to the workplace. This supports our view that structural changes will weigh on the office sector... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly House prices surge, floods devastate BC The renewed surge in house prices could persuade the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner than we forecast, although the hit to activity from the devasting floods in BC this week reduces the... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Momentum could be sapped by winter wave While the recent performance of sales and production has been encouraging, the possibility of another winter wave of coronavirus infections represents a significant downside risk to activity over the... 19th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The ongoing supply chain disruptions and unseasonably warm weather explain most of the weakness of retail sales in September, but it seems likely that the winding down of fiscal support to households... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack US dollar bull market might just be getting started The dollar has risen to its strongest level in more than a year and, though it is not our central forecast, we think the risk of a more sustained dollar bull market is increasing. 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s inflation dilemma isn’t going away Whether Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard is given the nod over the coming days, the next 12-18 months are shaping up to be an unusually challenging period for the Fed Chair. The October data showed a... 18th November 2021 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Office and retail sectors turning a corner Economic growth slowed in Q3, but we expect it to pick up again in Q4. And with earnings growth and inflation at high levels, we see the Fed Funds Rate and 10-year bond yields rising over the next few... 18th November 2021 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Update MBS taper won’t widen mortgage spreads The announcement that the Fed will start to taper its purchases of MBS this month is not set to widen mortgage spreads. The cut in demand will be gradual and offset by a moderation in the supply of... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
