Capital Daily What to make of the mid-terms and the lack of market reaction The inconclusive result from yesterday's US mid-term election has made limited impact on financial markets and, unlike in 2020, we doubt that would change even in the seemingly improbable event that... 9th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose this week even though more crude was used by refiners. And despite the increase in refining output, gasoline and distillate stocks fell on strong demand. We think demand... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Sales to slump and prices to fall We expect mortgage rates will hold close to 7% over the remainder of the year, leaving affordability at its worst since 1985. That will lead to another sharp fall in activity. As the economy dips into... 8th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Energy Update High US fuel prices could boost crude exports US petroleum product prices have risen again, mainly due to refinery-side supply constraints. We think this will translate into fewer product exports, but potentially even more crude oil exports. 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The worst may not be over for US big-tech Although US “big-tech” stocks have had a torrid time so far this year, including for much of the past week on net, we think there is still ample scope for the “supersector” in which they reside to... 8th November 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Global recession seals real estate downturn In line with changes in our global economic view, we have made significant downgrades to our commercial real estate forecasts for the next couple of years. As a result, we now expect a much bigger... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed labour market signals may mean yields stay high for a while While we still think a sustained fall in Treasury yields is on the cards, the latest US employment data suggest it may still be a while off yet. 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The October employment report had something for everyone, with continued strong gains on the payroll survey while the household measure showed a sharp fall in employment and a rise in unemployment... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The 108,300 surge in employment in October makes a mockery of claims that the economy is on the cusp of recession and, with wage growth accelerating sharply despite favourable base effects, that means... 4th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Fiscal restraint keeps markets on side The $6bn in new federal spending measures for this year, as outlined in the Fall Economic Update, amount to just 0.2% of GDP and will have little impact on the economic outlook or monetary policy. By... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold and silver prices to rise next year Gold and silver prices fell following Chair Powell’s hawkish comments yesterday. But if we are right in thinking US rates won’t rise by as much as markets expect, gold and silver prices should... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update What the latest central bank signals mean for markets The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Sep.) & Building Permits (Sep.) The improvement in crop yields boosted export volumes in September, but the strength of exports was overshadowed by the also-reported record slump in building permits, which suggests that higher... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Int’l Trade (Sep.) and Productivity & Labour Costs (Q3) A drop back in exports and small rebound in imports means the trade deficit bounced back to $73.3bn in September, from a downwardly revised $65.7bn. With that weakness in exports likely to last for... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
