US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in December, which followed a downwardly-revised 1.0% fall in November, adds to the evidence from the surveys that the economy was losing momentum towards the end of... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan.) The large fall in new listings in December failed to prevent another sizeable drop in house prices, but the improvement in the sales-to-new listing ratio offers some hope that the downward pressure on... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Risk of debt ceiling crisis is rising Raising the federal debt ceiling later this year will require bipartisan compromise, most likely involving measures to reduce the budget deficit modestly. But a deal probably won’t be reached until... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although the annual rates of core inflation remain elevated, the three-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median dropped back to 2.5% in December. Elevated inflation expectations mean that the... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Pouring cold water on the “petroyuan” The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q4) The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys leave no doubt that higher interest rates are weighing on demand, but still don’t show a convincing moderation in wage and inflation expectations... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec.) On the surface, net lending to real estate in December looks to have reached its highest since October 2008. However, this apparent spike in lending was almost entirely due to the addition of a... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) The easing of supply shortages provided a big boost to motor vehicle shipments in November, but this failed to offset falls elsewhere. While there is scope for transportation equipment sales to rise... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Four key points to consider this US earnings season This Update makes four key points about corporate earnings in the US as the Q4 results season gets into swing. They all feed into our view that the S&P 500 will remain under pressure until the spring... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly A pivotal week for policy outlook The December CPI data and the Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys, released next week, could have a big bearing on the policy outlook. For the Bank to pause after one final 25 bp... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update China’s re-opening and currency markets While the medium-term outlook for the renminbi and other Asian currencies has improved, and we have revised some of our forecasts accordingly, we continue to anticipate that a deterioration in risk... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Core inflation moderates as labour tightness fades The 0.1% m/m decline in headline CPI in December was principally due to a 9.4% m/m drop in gasoline prices, but core consumer prices also increased by a more modest 0.3% m/m, extending the run of... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
