US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The softer 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in October makes it even less likely that the Fed will raise rates any further, and we expect a continued decline in inflation over the coming months... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US sovereign risk; markets vs Moody’s Moody’s decision to revise down its outlook for the US sovereign credit rating may add to the growing sense that market participants are becoming more worried about the fiscal outlook in the US. So... 13th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct) The second consecutive monthly decline in outstanding commercial real estate loan balances held by US banks in October means the data are starting to reflect the pullback in real estate lending that... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal versus monetary policy and the outlook for Treasuries Although yesterday’s poorly digested auction of 30Y Treasuries served as a reminder that the outlook for fiscal policy has the potential to undermine US long-dated government bonds, we still think... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Energy disinflation; credit conditions still tight Despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, crude oil prices have slumped. The upshot is that headline CPI inflation, which rebounded from a low of 3.1% in June to 3.7% in September, should be back... 10th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank unlikely to follow through with hawkish message The Bank of Canada’s latest Summary of Deliberations was more hawkish than most probably expected, with some members of the Governing Council still seemingly arguing for further rate hikes. That said... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024-27 completions to be below pre-pandemic levels With vacancy set to stay elevated, development finance remaining expensive, and values to continue falling next year, we expect construction starts will be weak in all sectors over the next 12 months... 10th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Economic turbulence could still knock “risky” assets off course Even though we expect the S&P 500 to end 2024 at a much higher level than it is now, we doubt it will build on its recent gains over the coming months given the outlook for the economy. 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What next for the greenback? While the US dollar has bounced back a bit this week, its struggles over the past month or so are in some ways similar to the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year. But we think a comparable... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Answering your questions about the effects of R* on markets Following the release of our new analysis on real equilibrium interest rates (R*) last month, we held an online Drop-In last week and in-person Roundtable events with clients yesterday to discuss our... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Déjà vu all over again for the dollar? The US dollar’s struggles over the past month or so are reminiscent of the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year, but a similar slide over the coming months looks unlikely. Instead, we continue... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Business investment to stagnate Business investment had so far been resilient to higher interest rates, but growth stalled in the third quarter and there are three reasons why we think that’s a sign of things to come. 8th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2023) After their weakest month in 28 years, there were signs that mortgage applications for home purchase bottomed out at the end of October. Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped 9.1% m/m across... 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Shifting correlations may also be driving Treasury term premia One factor that may have contributed to higher Treasury term premia, as posited recently by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in connection with the Quarterly Refunding, is a shift in the... 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Still plenty of scope for ‘supercore’ inflation to fall The recent stickiness of the Fed’s preferred measure of ‘supercore’ inflation mainly reflects temporary factors rather than ongoing tightness in the labour market. The upshot is that we still expect a... 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
