US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov) Net lending on commercial real estate by banks resurged in November, despite signs from other data that lenders would continue to pull back from real estate lending. That said, the $4.4bn of net... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt service ratio will continue to rise Household net worth fell in the third quarter, although the recent resurgence in bond and equity prices means that should soon be reversed. It is too soon to sound the all-clear for households’... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Dec.) November was a weak month all round for housing, with prices falling at a faster pace and starts plunging. Lenders are already cutting mortgage rates in response to the recent drop in bond yields... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed & markets catching up with inflation reality The Fed’s embrace of interest rate cuts next year is understandable when the latest data suggest that core PCE inflation is rapidly closing in on the 2% target. 15th December 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Another year of double-digit value falls in 2024 Persistent weak growth and elevated (albeit soon-to-be falling) interest rates continue to spell trouble for real estate values. We see NOI growth softening further over the next year as the... 15th December 2023 · 22 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack Recent falls in Treasury yields have bought mortgage rates back down from a peak of 8% in October to 7% earlier than we had anticipated, setting the scene for a recovery in housing market activity in... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Mission Accomplished? While central banks remain reluctant to declare victory over inflation just yet, bond markets appear more than happy to do so on their behalf. With most of the policy rate cuts which we forecast over... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The rebound in retail sales in November provides further illustration that the continued rapid decline in inflation is not coming at the cost of significantly weaker economic growth. 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed's intransigence typical ahead of a turning point The Fed’s reluctance to acknowledge that it will need to begin cutting its policy rate soon – to prevent a run-up in real rates – was predictable enough based on its intransigence ahead of previous... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Even lower rate expectations may fuel the Treasury rally Investors have revised down their expectations for the Fed funds rate a long way in recent weeks. But we think that shift will continue in the coming months, pushing Treasury yields down further. 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slightly stronger 0.28% m/m rise in core consumer prices in November suggests the Fed may be able to hang onto its tightening bias for a little longer, but sharper declines in inflation are still... 12th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus Resurgence in labour force has further to run The resurgence in the labour force over the past year mainly reflects the ongoing boost to participation from increasing opportunities for women to combine parenthood with work, more young people... 11th December 2023 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
