US Economics Update

Harris unveils populist economic plan

Kamala Harris unveiled her economic plan today and it appears to be focused on mostly small-scale pocket-book populist issues. Our main take-away is that, like her opponent Donald Trump, she has shied...

16th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Warning signs for business investment

The data this week cast doubt on the Bank of Canada’s view that the worst is already behind us for the economy, with manufacturing sales slumping to a two-and-a-half year low in June and non...

16th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

We think a US “soft landing” will let equities take off

The relief felt in markets over the past week or so as worries about the US economy have dissipated makes sense to us. So we expect the rebound in equity markets to continue.

16th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Aug. 2024)

Interest rate cuts have so far failed to stimulate the housing market, although the sharper drop in borrowing costs this month will lend more support. Regional divergences are growing, with Toronto...

16th August 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

More good data all around

The data released this week was all consistent with a soft landing: Price pressures remained muted last month, while the strength of retail sales and the drop back in initial jobless claims suggested...

16th August 2024 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug. 2024)

The small rebound in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in August was entirely driven by recent political developments, and still leaves it below its level for most of this year. At...

16th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jul. 2024)

The slump in both housing starts and building permits in July, to the lowest levels since the epoch of the pandemic, only partly reflects the temporary impact of Hurricane Beryl. Accordingly, even...

16th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2024)

It was an extremely poor month for the manufacturing sector in June, with sales falling to a two-and-a-half-year low. As new orders slumped, inventories are elevated and the S&P Global manufacturing...

16th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024)

Minimal movement in property yields and a slight edge up in the 10-year Treasury yield meant improvement in our property valuation scores stalled in the second quarter of the year. Despite the recent...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

Industrial Production (Jul.)

The fall in manufacturing output in July was entirely driven by temporary disruptions which should reverse this month. Excluding those temporary factors, this is a strong report which, together with...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Jul. 2024)

There was almost nothing in the July retail sales report for the perma-bears to latch on to, with the rebound in retail sales led by a recovery in vehicle sales, but encouragingly broad-based with...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Has inflation optimism gone too far?

The muted reaction to today’s US CPI data reflects that most investors already expected inflation to fall to around 2% before long and remain there. But last week’s turmoil highlighted that when...

14th August 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 24)

While investment has tentatively turned a corner, subdued activity and further rises in cap rates mean 2024 will still be a tough year. All-property values are down by 18% from their mid-2022 peaks...

14th August 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Focus

Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing

The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall...

14th August 2024 · 17 mins read

US Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The 0.15% m/m increase in all-items CPI and the 0.17% increase in core CPI in July suggest that, after the temporary relapse in the first quarter, the disinflationary trend has firmly reasserted...

14th August 2024 · 2 mins read