US Commercial Property Rapid Response Flagging previous climate risk notes In light of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton we are flagging notes where we highlighted the physical climate risks facing the US. 14th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Hurricanes add to upside inflation risks Alongside the unexpectedly strong labour market data, September’s price data suggest that more than a few Fed officials might regret starting their easing cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut. We... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly October meeting will be a close call The stronger labour market data makes the Bank of Canada’s decision in October a close call but, with upside inflation risks fading, and demand still very weak, we think t he Bank will want to bring... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct. 2024) The trivial fall in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in October was likely driven in part by Hurricane Helene, although the fall in the expectations index suggests the mood among... 11th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Sep) Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we now calculate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator price measure increased by 0.24% m/m in September which, at 2.9% annualised, is a little hotter than... 11th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2024) The stronger rise in employment and fall in the unemployment rate in September were largely due to a seasonal quirk, as the weak summer jobs market meant that fewer young workers left positions than... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rising geopolitical tensions could prick the AI bubble A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily CPI upside surprise may not lead to higher UST yields The initial market reaction to today’s release of US inflation for September and jobless claims data suggests to us that investors may be more concerned about the latter than about the former. We... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate... 10th October 2024 · 14 mins read
Bonds Update Assessing the risks to Treasuries The bond market sell-off over recent weeks has taken the 10-year Treasury yield to around our long-held end-2024 forecast of 4.00%. Although significant economic, political, and geopolitical risks... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep) Although core CPI prices increased by 0.3% m/m for a second consecutive month in September, our calculations suggest that core PCE prices increased by 0.20% m/m which, at an annualised pace, is only... 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (Sept 17-18) The minutes of the mid-September FOMC meeting reveal that support among Fed officials for kicking off the loosening cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut was a little weaker than the lone dissent on the... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on antitrust & the US stock market Market participants have largely shrugged off the news that the US Department of Justice (DoJ) may seek a court-ordered break up of Google. Given the snail’s pace at which the US antitrust process... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rollout While electric vehicle (EV) rollouts in Europe and the US have stalled and are set to remain sluggish over the next few years, the uptake of EVs in China has surged beyond expectations. So, for all... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
