Capital Daily Recovery in Treasuries may have further to go Today’s release of US CPI data for December did not change our view that the Fed will cut its policy rate by a bit more than investors anticipate, and in turn that Treasury yields will edge down... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Six key questions on Trump & the dollar Donald Trump’s election win two months ago has already contributed to a rally in the US dollar, and we think there is a bit more to come this year. More broadly, the second Trump administration will... 15th January 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 0.23% m/m increase in core CPI in December appears consistent with a below-target 0.14% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. Although that would leave core PCE inflation... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Nov. 2024) The rise in manufacturing sales in November was entirely due to higher prices, with sales volumes unchanged. While the recovery in activity took a breather, the 1.8% m/m rise in new orders and... 15th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tariff front-running to temporarily boost world trade There is already some evidence of US importers increasing orders, at least for goods from China, before Trump’s proposed tariffs come into effect. We think this may continue in the next few months... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily It’s time for the S&P 500 to earn its stripes again It’s easy to forget the importance of earnings in influencing the S&P 500 when its performance is driven instead, as has been the case recently, by gyrations in the Treasury market. Earnings will be... 14th January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Dec. 2024) On the surface, the weaker than expected 0.2% m/m increase in final demand PPI and unchanged level of core final demand PPI in December seems encouraging, but they mask some price jumps in a few of... 14th January 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sanctions boost oil prices, but impact will fade away The recent ramp-up in US sanctions on Russia’s oil supply chain has tightened the global oil market and may keep prices higher in the near term. But we still expect greater OPEC+ supply and weak... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US oil firms’ post-election optimism will be short-lived We doubt that US oil & gas firms’ optimism following Donald Trump’s election victory will translate into stronger growth in output as recent productivity gains falter and oil prices fall later this... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think US stocks will rebound with big tech in the lead We think the recent falls in US equities will unwind before long, with growth and cyclical stocks leading the charge. 13th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Fires in LA highlight rising climate-related risk to CRE While commercial real estate insurance premiums remain elevated, their growth dropped back substantially last year. But as the West and Gulf coasts still face the greatest threat from climate risks... 13th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling drama begins to brew Raising the federal debt ceiling this year will likely come as part of a budget reconciliation package alongside concessionary spending cuts given the razor-thin Republican majority in the House. As... 13th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau and Trump share their truths The power vacuum created by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation comes at a bad time, with President-elect Donald Trump ratcheting up his threats against Canada, raising the risk that the next... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Still waiting for clarity on the Trump agenda More than two months after Donald Trump and the Republicans completed a narrow clean sweep in last November’s election, and with only 10 days until the inauguration, there is still massive uncertainty... 10th January 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan. 2025) The drop in the expectations index of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey in January and the accompanying jump in inflation expectations suggest that consumers are becoming more... 10th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Dec. 2024) The larger-than-expected 256,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December and drop back in the unemployment rate to 4.1% supports the Fed’s decision to slow the pace of rate cuts and has heightened... 10th January 2025 · 2 mins read
