Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries cutting back oil production The Gulf economies cut back oil production towards the end of last year against the backdrop of the weakening global economy. But while the hydrocarbon sector may be a drag on growth in 2013, it looks... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf overheating fears haven't disappeared Recently announced plans in the Gulf countries to ease fiscal policy to counter the global downturn could lead to renewed fears of overheating in the region. Our core inflation measures suggest that... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's capital controls could be a further drag on growth The depreciation of the Egyptian pound has slowed in recent weeks, but only because of a tightening of capital controls. If these remain in place for any length of time, they could present another... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sluggish Egyptian economy reduces prospect of IMF deal All eyes have focused on the fall of the Egyptian pound since the end of last year. But at the same time, the economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse. This suggests that job creation probably... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political stability needed to get Egypt's debt onto a stable path Continued unrest has led to a worsening of Egypt’s fiscal position over the past year or so and we estimate that fiscal tightening of 3% of GDP is needed just to stabilise the debt ratio. However... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's FX reserves fall below "critical" threshold The fall in Egypt’s FX reserves last month underlines the limited firepower that the authorities have to stem depreciation pressures on the pound. We think the pound could fall a further 10% or so... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's economy continues to suffer amid civil unrest January’s PMI data suggest that civil unrest and political uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on activity in Egypt. By contrast, the Gulf economies are growing at a robust pace. 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's external risks mean policy easing is off the cards Growing strains in the balance of payments continue to prevent any loosening of monetary policy to support Egypt’s struggling economy. We don’t think there will be any scope to ease policy until the... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jan.) The Egyptian pound has fallen sharply over the past month after the Central Bank of Egypt loosened its grip on the currency. We think the pound could fall by a further 10-15% to around 7.5/US$... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack All eyes on how far Egyptian pound will fall Although Egypt’s constitutional crisis has eased, the currency is now presenting a fresh cause for concern. Our central view remains that Egypt will secure an IMF deal which, combined with a return of... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The 'Arab Spring' - two years on Two years have passed since the start of the ‘Arab Spring’ and the economic progress that many hoped for at the time still hasn’t materialised. But while the transition process is likely to remain... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fiscal deficits squeezing investment in resource-poor economies With all eyes on Egypt’s currency crisis, it’s easy to forget the fiscal crisis hitting the resource-poor Arab countries at the same time. Gaping budget deficits are squeezing out investment and... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to rise - but not just because of the pound Fears that the recent fall in the Egyptian pound will lead to a sharp rise in inflation are overplayed. Instead, tax hikes and subsidy cuts are likely to have a much greater impact on headline... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Constitutional crisis weighs on Egyptian economy The latest PMI data suggest that Egypt’s constitutional crisis took a heavy toll on the economy at the end of last year. By contrast, activity in the Gulf economies is holding up well, buoyed by... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How far and how quickly will the Egyptian pound fall? With the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) loosening its grip on the pound, the key question is whether the authorities will succeed in overseeing an “orderly” devaluation of the currency. If an IMF deal... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Europe lagging behind in EM recovery Emerging market manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in more than 18 months in December, according to the latest PMI data. However, the improvement in performance was concentrated in Asia and Latin... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
