Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation a step in the right direction The decision this morning by the Central Bank of Egypt to devalue the pound and move to a more flexible exchange rate regime is a positive step and should help to improve the country’s balance of... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt devaluation: short-term pain, long-term gain? We think the latest moves by the Central Bank of Egypt suggest that a long-awaited devaluation of the pound may be just around the corner. This will inevitably involve some short-term pain, but over a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay in double digits for most of this year Egyptian inflation came in at 10.1% y/y in January and, with a looming devaluation of the pound and the government preparing the ground for a fresh round of subsidy cuts, it is likely to remain in (or... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: interest rates on hold, devaluation increasingly likely The Central Bank of Egypt kept its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 9.25% today as an influx of financial support has eased immediate concerns over the country’s external position and... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation and tourism troubles spell slowdown in 2016 The latest Egyptian economic data, on the face of it, show that the economy held up well in 2015, but the underlying picture is actually pretty weak. With the tourism sector in the midst of a fresh... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt edging closer to pound devaluation The Egyptian central bank has found itself in the spotlight this month, as attention has (re-)focussed on the country’s fragile external position. The appointment of Tarek Amer as governor had already... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation to 11.1% y/y in November, alongside fresh fears over the fragile external position, is likely to add to policymaker’s concerns. For now, we expect the central... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt getting to grips with its foreign currency problems Egypt’s fragile external position has come under the spotlight once again, but the latest signs are that policymakers are trying to ease foreign currency restrictions. The upshot is that a devaluation... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities drop, yields rise as external concerns resurface Renewed concerns over Egypt’s external position, coupled with fresh security fears in light of the Russian plane crash in the Sinai, have caused the country’s equity market to slump and dollar bond... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mounting signs that Egypt’s exchange rate policy will shift There is growing talk that Egypt is in the midst of a currency crisis and, while we think some of this may be a bit overdone, developments over the past month or so suggest that a shift towards a more... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation to 9.7% y/y in October was driven almost entirely by an increase in the food component, which is highly volatile. Stripping out food prices, inflation actually... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Renewed security concerns to hit Egypt’s tourism sector Mounting evidence that the Russian plane crash in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula was caused by a bomb planted by an affiliate of Islamic State is almost inevitably going to deal a hammer blow to Egypt’s... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as external concerns return A renewed focus on Egypt’s external position appears to have been the main reason why the central bank kept the benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% today, rather than lower rates. The... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank loosens grip on pound, further falls likely For the third time this year the Central Bank of Egypt has loosened its grip on the pound and the currency is likely to fall further over the coming days. We expect it to reach 8.25/US$ by the end of... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates amid Fed uncertainty The decision by the Egyptian central bank (CBE) to keep its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% today was probably a close call and we suspect that policymakers were swayed from... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
