Asia Economic Outlook

Asia Outlook: Tepid growth for many as tariff threat looms

We expect GDP growth across most of Asia to soften in 2025, with many countries likely to record below-consensus growth. The risk of escalating trade tensions remains a key concern, particularly for...

26th June 2025 · 28 mins read

China Economic Outlook

China Outlook: Fiscal prop to fade as exports slow

Exports would almost certainly have weighed on China’s growth whatever happened this year, but US tariffs – even at their reduced rate – will worsen the drag. Fiscal support has been propping up...

25th June 2025 · 16 mins read

India Economics Update

How might India push back against Chinese imports?

India’s goods trade deficit with China is now at a record high. This largely reflects rising goods imports from China which, while bringing economic benefits in some areas, are also raising concerns...

25th June 2025 · 4 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Thailand Monetary Policy Announcement (June)

Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, but the dovish commentary from the press conference supports our view that further easing is likely over the coming months.

25th June 2025 · 2 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: China’s industry takes a hit

Our China Activity Proxy suggests growth slowed further in May, with US tariffs weighing on industrial activity. While services growth did pick up, that seems to have been driven by a temporary boost...

24th June 2025 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Update

Services inflation set to surpass goods inflation

Prices of public services and rents are rising at the fastest pace in years, which supports our view that inflation will remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target even as the impact of the post...

24th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Japan Outlook: BoJ will resume tightening cycle later this year

The Bank of Japan will stay on the sidelines for a few more months as GDP growth softens and trade tensions cloud the outlook. But with the labour market set to remain very tight, wages rising...

23rd June 2025 · 18 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Flash PMIs (June 25)

With output expanding at a healthy pace and price pressures set to remain relatively firm, we continue to believe the Bank of Japan will deliver its next rate hike sooner than most anticipate.

23rd June 2025 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China Weekly: EU is choosing Trump over China, retailers doing well

When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But it was clear this...

20th June 2025 · 5 mins read

Climate Economics Update

China’s green exports hold up in the face of US tariffs

China’s New Three export volumes edged down in May, but remained close to record highs, as the impact on trade from US tariffs was partially offset by increased shipments to the Middle East. While the...

20th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: More policy support coming in Korea

More policy support in Korea looks to be on its way soon. The minutes from the Bank of Korea’s May meeting, point to more rate cuts over the coming months. Meanwhile, the new government has announced...

20th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly - No signs that trade tensions are weighing on inflation

The Bank of Japan retained its downbeat outlook at this week’s meeting. But with the economic data holding up despite trade tensions and inflation set to overshoot the Board’s forecasts by a sizeable...

20th June 2025 · 5 mins read

Equities Update

Korean equities may not outperform Taiwan much longer

Taiwan’s stock market has been a key beneficiary of the AI boom and was one of the top performers in the world in 2024. This year though, equities in fellow Asian tech heavyweight Korea have taken...

20th June 2025 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Consumer Prices (May 25)

Inflation is set to overshoot the Bank of Japan’s forecasts by a wide margin and we expect the Bank to resume its tightening cycle before the end of the year.

20th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Taiwan Monetary Policy Announcement (June 2025)

Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.0%) and we expect interest rates to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. In contrast, most other analysts are...

19th June 2025 · 2 mins read