Global Economics Update Can emerging markets rescue the rest of the world? Emerging markets should continue to grow rapidly over the next few years but, in contrast to the view of most commentators, we doubt that this will be of much benefit to the developed world. 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India's policy tightening set to continue India’s latest wholesale price data show that inflation remains uncomfortably high. Meanwhile, we believe that a hard landing for the economy is unlikely. The upshot is that, in spite of the... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese imports from Asia have cooled At the time of the earthquake in Japan in March, many governments in the region feared the potential impact on their economies. However, although Taiwan and the Philippines saw demand for their... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Singapore's negative interest rates? Singapore’s short-term swap offer rates (SOR) turned negative last week, prompting questions as to whether this amounts to an implicit policy easing. We think not. The negative short-term SOR is... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia would benefit from a further fall in oil prices Oil prices have slipped back on fears that the world economy may be heading for another downturn. What’s more, our in-house view is that oil prices have further to fall. The impact in emerging Asia of... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank in wait-and-see mode The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its base rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Volatility in the financial markets and concerns over the outlook for the global economy are likely to keep the BoK on the... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How quickly would Asia recover from another global downturn? Fear is growing in Asia over the outlook for the global economy. Although not our forecast, another sharp fall in global output would see Asia hit hard initially. However, as in 2009, Asia’s strong... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia extends pause amid market jitters Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its reference rate on hold at 6.75% today, as expected. Declining headline inflation and greater uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy were the main factors... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian governments will continue buying US debt Even before S&Ps downgrade of US debt on Friday, many governments in Asia had been stepping up efforts to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from US dollars. However, as long as Asian... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are emerging markets immune? Despite benefiting from generally better fundamentals, no emerging market (EM) is immune from the deepening problems in the US and Europe. Growth everywhere is likely to slow over the next year and... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s rollercoaster ride to continue Share prices in Emerging Asia registered losses as worries over the global outlook intensified. However, equities in Emerging Asia fell by less than in other parts of the world. This makes sense given... 8th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia’s robust growth highlights overheating risks Today’s Q2 GDP data for Indonesia confirm that growth remained brisk, underpinned by rising commodity exports and resilient domestic demand. We maintain our view that further monetary tightening at... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Have Australia’s shoppers gone on strike? Sluggish retail sales have prompted media reports that Australia’s shoppers have gone on strike. However, overall consumer spending has held up much better. The upshot is that we do not expect the... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Should we be worried about sovereign debt in Asia? Emerging Asia is not in any imminent danger of a sovereign-debt crisis: debt levels in most countries are low, while strong growth makes it easier to finance debt burdens. However, another sharp... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines targeting investment grade The Philippines has seen its fiscal deficit fall sharply during the first six months of the year. Although revenue growth has been growing strongly, the fact that government spending has fallen... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia PMIs fall sharply Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) released over the past two days for India, Taiwan, Australia and Singapore all worsened considerably. Manufacturing across Asia is likely to remain subdued for the... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
