Asia Economics Update Low inflation means BI is in little hurry to raise rates Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged again today, and the relative weakness of inflation means any tightening cycle is unlikely to be aggressive. We are maintaining our view the central bank... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update New rate forecasts following hawkish BSP comments The central bank in the Philippines today raised its policy rate by another 25bp (to 2.5%), and signalled that further tightening was likely. However, with inflation set to peak soon and headwinds to... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s hot labour market, Sri Lanka’s tourism woes The Korean labour market is continuing to heat up, increasing the chances that the central bank will tighten monetary policy further over the coming months. Meanwhile, a renewed slump in visitor... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, food security and inflation Shortages of food supplies and surging prices have led some EMs to impose export restrictions on key agricultural products, a trend that threatens to become more prevalent and serve to keep prices... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: tightening cycle to be gradual Taiwan’s central bank today raised interest rates by 12.5bp (to 1.50%) and appeared to indicate that rates would be raised further this year due to concerns about rising inflation. But we think the... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: assessing the impact of the truckers strike A strike by truck drivers in Korea is causing significant disruption. Prolonged industrial action could add to strains on global supply chains and would lower Korean GDP. Even if the strike ends soon... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest EM central bank meetings After months of aggressive interest rate hikes, the end of tightening cycles in parts of Emerging Europe and Latin America is creeping closer. But inflation concerns mean that policy rates are likely... 10th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP and BoT to go slow on rate hikes The BSP and the BoT this week signalled that they are likely to raise interest rates over the coming months. But in both cases we think the pace of tightening will be gradual. 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Bank of Korea to cut rates next year as headwinds mount The Bank of Korea (BoK) is almost certain to hike interest rates further this year, but with financial risks receding, economic growth likely to slow and inflation set to fall back to target by early... 9th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates set to rise, but tightening to be gradual The Bank of Thailand left interest rates unchanged today, but hawkish comments from the central bank suggest that rates will be raised sooner than we had previously expected. 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt and current account risks are building The effects of the war in Ukraine and strong dollar are causing sovereign debt risks to build in a handful of frontier markets with weak balance sheets, while public debt dynamics in parts of Emerging... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT to stay on the sidelines, Korea inflation concerns Despite above-target inflation, we expect the Bank of Thailand to leave interest rates unchanged, not only at its meeting on Wednesday, but throughout 2022, as it prioritises supporting the economic... 2nd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A modest recovery in EM manufacturing The S&P Global EM Manufacturing PMI for May suggests that the easing of virus-related disruptions in China supported a small rebound in EM manufacturing last month, but the sector remains very weak... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May) Manufacturing PMIs for May suggest that cost pressures remain high, but there were more encouraging signs on the external front, with new export orders showing signs of stabilising. Meanwhile, Korean... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM sovereign bond yields will resume their rise While the yields of emerging market local-currency and dollar-denominated sovereign bonds have dropped back in recent weeks, we expect them to resume their rise before long. US Payrolls Drop-In (3 rd... 31st May 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Pakistan edges closer to IMF deal Talks between Pakistan and the IMF ended last week without agreement, but the subsequent decision by the government to cut back fuel subsidies has cleared one of the major hurdles towards a deal being... 30th May 2022 · 15 mins read
