Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates on hold for the rest of the year Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged (at 5.75%), and appeared to signal that further rate increases this year were unlikely. With inflation falling and growth easing, we expect... 18th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS keeps policy settings on hold as economy contracts The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy on hold today and with the economy set to struggle and inflation likely to fall sharply over the coming quarters we expect today’s decision to... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) Bank loan growth jumped to a 17-month high in March. And broad credit growth rose to its highest since December. Both were stronger than most anticipated. We expect broad credit growth to accelerate a... 11th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: cuts coming sooner than consensus expects The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) for a second consecutive meeting today, and attempted to push back against expectations of a rate cut this year. But with the economy... 11th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS decision on a knife edge, Thai inflation falling The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to leave its policy settings on hold at its scheduled meeting next week, with concerns about the growth outlook set to outweigh lingering worries on... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook First to hike, first to cut Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally... 4th April 2023 · 27 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rates to stay unchanged in 2023 Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left interest rates unchanged today and we expect rates to stay on hold for the rest of the year as policymakers look to strike a balance between clamping down on... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: end of the tightening cycle Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised its policy rate by a further 100bps (to 21.0%), but the tone of the statement was less hawkish than after previous meetings. While interest rates will need... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: expected rate cut, but further easing likely now Vietnam’s central bank lowered its benchmark refinancing rate by 50bp, on Friday evening, citing the need to support the economy. The rate cut was in line with our forecast and we now think the... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia dropped back in March, driven by a fall in the new export orders and employment sub-indices. With global growth set to remain weak in the coming quarters, we expect... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean industry struggling, CPTPP+UK Korea’s manufacturing sector is in for a painful year with bloated inventories and weak external demand set to drag on production. Data published earlier today showed that production of semiconductors... 31st March 2023 · 10 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian banks in decent shape, but credit risks lurk The turmoil in the global banking system over the past month has had a limited impact on Asia – currencies have held up well and outflows of capital have been small. And in general, banking sectors in... 30th March 2023 · 16 mins read
