Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Mexico’s mining downturn First quarter GDP data from Mexico, due to be released tomorrow, are likely to show that the economy made a sluggish start to the year, due in large part to continued weakness in the mining sector... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery stalls as Brazil suffers renewed downturn The recovery that appeared to be underway in Latin America at the end of last year has faded in recent months, with several of the region’s economies experiencing renewed downturns. The latest... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) Industrial production data for March were a bit softer than expected and suggest that Mexico’s economy grew by a disappointing 0.3% q/q or so in the first quarter. There are some signs that weather... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil heads deeper into the fiscal mire It is, in truth, too soon to expect any improvement in Brazil’s public finances as a result of the belt-tightening measures introduced over the past few months, but the fact that the fiscal position... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) Annual inflation in Mexico held steady at 3.1% for the second consecutive month in April and the recent stabilisation of the peso against the dollar should help to ease fears that inflation will... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Retail Sales (Feb.) The pick-up in retail sales growth in February suggests that consumer spending in Mexico has strengthened in the early months of this year, even if problems in the mining sector have weighed on wider... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico IGAE (Feb.) & Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) Activity data from Mexico for February were a little weaker than expected and leave the economy on course to grow by a relatively sluggish 2.5% y/y in the first quarter of the year. There is better... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Reasons to remain upbeat on Mexico Despite a recession in the mining sector and an impending fiscal squeeze, we remain upbeat about Mexico. A gradual improvement in the labour market and a likely recovery in the US, after a weak start... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) Mexican industrial production rebounded in February, largely due to an encouraging rise in manufacturing output. However, the bigger picture is that industrial production has had a soft start to the... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Mexico remained close to the central bank’s 3% target last month and we expect it to remain around there over the next eighteen months. The benign inflation outlook, combined with recent... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency rout rules out further policy easing Currencies across Latin America have continued to weaken against the dollar over the past month. Concerns that this could trigger a spate of crises in the region seem overdone. However, one... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency sell-off puts paid to further policy loosening Currencies in Latin America have regained some ground over the past week, but have still typically fallen by between 10-20% against the dollar over the past six months. The risk that the slide in... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industry made a disappointing start to the year, but with demand from the US likely to strengthen and a weaker peso set to boost the external competitiveness of exporters, we still expect the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February and there is still little evidence to suggest that a weaker peso is feeding through to higher inflation. Inflation should remain close to the... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Not much cause for concern in Mexico’s current account Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP on a four-quarter sum in Q4 and, with the worst of the falls in oil prices now behind us, we think it could narrow a touch further to about 1.5... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
