Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (November 2024) With GDP growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to continue to cut interest rates over the coming months. Overall, we expect most central banks to cut rates by... 29th November 2024 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q2 as underlying inflation softens The renewed pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in October marked the final nail in the coffin for a rate cut before year-end. To be sure, by our measures quarterly trimmed mean inflation is on track to... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates further to 1.25% by 2026 The pick-up in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo in November points to the nationwide measure rising further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. With the yen set to remain weak for... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Oct. 2024) & Tokyo CPI (Nov. 2024) The Tokyo CPI suggests that inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in November, supporting our long-held view that the Bank will hike rates in... 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further interest rate cuts likely next year in Korea The Bank of Korea cut interest rates again today by a further 25bps (to 3.00%) and made clear in its statement that more easing is on the way. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will... 28th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Why is the RBNZ slashing rates but the RBA is not? While the RBNZ started hiking rates earlier during the recent tightening cycle than the RBA, it also lifted rates to a higher peak. The RBA tempered the degree of tightening in order to preserve the... 28th November 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: New model points to weaker growth in China We’re launching an updated version of our China Activity Proxy this month, alongside an interactive dashboard that gives clients access to the data. Our expanded model suggests that China’s growth so... 27th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024) EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a... 27th November 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily RBNZ rate cuts could still sink the Kiwi dollar We expect the New Zealand dollar to fall against the US and Australian dollars over the next year or so, and fare worse than most – if not all – other G10 currencies. 27th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (November 2024) The RBNZ didn’t provide a clear signal about the speed of future rate cuts when it lowered the overnight cash rates by 50bp today, but we think it will deliver another 50bp cut at its February meeting 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct. 24) The stagnation in headline inflation in October belies a renewed uptick in trimmed mean inflation and we’re sticking to our forecast that the RBA won’t cut interest rates before Q2 next year 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Equities Focus Is a bubble in India’s stock market deflating? India’s stock market has had such a good few years that it started to raise concerns about whether it was in a “bubble”. And as it’s come under pressure recently, some have speculated that the bubble... 26th November 2024 · 13 mins read
