Europe Economics Update SNB’s negative rate reluctance to be tested next year The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation and kept faith that its zero interest policy rate will be sufficient to boost inflation in the medium term. We think it will be less relaxed next... 11th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (December 2025) The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation in the fourth quarter and kept its policy rate at zero. However, we think it will be less relaxed next year, when we expect inflation to average just... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because... 10th December 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (December 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 5th December 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth will remain weak The small upward revision to the euro-zone's third-quarter GDP growth, from +0.2% to +0.3% q/q, does not change our view that there has been no meaningful increase in momentum in the second half of... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to bide its time and delay negative rates to 2026 Inflation undershot the SNB’s forecast and fell to zero in November, but we think officials are unlikely to respond by lowering the policy rate next week. By June next year, however, we think that... 4th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The fall in Swiss inflation to zero will raise significant concerns in the SNB as officials had expected it to rebound and average 0.4% in Q4. This makes it more likely that the SNB will cut into... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German pension policy: backsliding more than France? While much attention has been given recently to pension policy in France, it has gone almost unnoticed that the German cabinet has approved a pension package that could be significantly more costly... 28th November 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2025) Softening rental growth and steady yields weighed on capital value growth in many markets in Q3. And this is likely to continue, with our Capital Value Lead Indicator pointing to a further slowdown in... 24th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth falling, consumers gloomy, EC optimistic Data published this week confirmed that wage growth is slowing and consumers are downbeat. As a result, household spending growth is likely to remain subdued. Next week, we expect to learn that... 21st November 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2025) Commercial property valuations held steady in Q3, supported by lower equity dividend yields despite higher government bond yields. Looking ahead, there is limited scope for falls in government bond... 19th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update North-south divide emerges in Europe AI usage It is still early days in the roll-out of AI but the data available at this stage suggest that there is a big variation in its usage between European economies. Firms in the Nordics and Benelux are... 18th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update US-Swiss deal to help reverse GDP contraction Assuming it is implemented soon, the deal to lower US tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to 15% would leave Swiss exporters paying the lowest US average tariff rate of any major economy, at around 7%... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2025) The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in Q3 shows that US trade policies have been much more disruptive for Switzerland than was anticipated. But a deal agreed last Friday will reduce the tariff on Swiss exports... 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France delays pension reform; Swiss-US talks The narrowing in the spread on French government bonds over the past month may reflect the fact that France has avoided early elections for now and the latest economic data have been quite strong. But... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Defence sector won’t save euro-zone industry Rising government spending on defence appears to have boosted production in the sector already. But with larger sectors within industry facing significant structural headwinds we think the outlook for... 7th November 2025 · 6 mins read
