Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s worsening twin deficits reinforce need for austerity Saudi Arabia’s twin budget and current account deficits have widened on the back of low oil export receipts and this trend is likely to continue over the coming quarters. While the adjustment to low... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 2025, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by 1.4% q/q in Q3 according to this morning flash estimate, which translated into a pick-up in the year-on-year growth rate from 3.9% in Q2 to 5.0% - the fastest pace... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years supported... 29th October 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on AI and electricity demand While data centres will remain a small share of global electricity consumption, the uneven spread of their power demands means their influence on power markets will be felt much more acutely in... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record its fastest rate of GDP... 28th October 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Market scepticism over fresh sanctions on Russian oil While the threat of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil producers drove crude prices up by ~8% this week, market participants appear to be treating the risk with a degree of scepticism. That leaves the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil... 23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities & the tariff shock six months on Six months on from the unveiling of President Trump’s tariff agenda, the direct effects on commodity markets have been contained to higher US price premiums for steel and aluminium. That said... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update EU’s Russian energy ban formalises shift in supply In light of today’s confirmation that the EU will completely phase out Russian LNG and pipeline natural gas imports by end-2026 and September 2027, respectively, this is an updated version of an... 20th October 2025 (Updated 26th January 2026) · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil glut is set to come onshore; precious metals still rallying The rapid build-up in oil stocks on water suggests that the full impact of previous OPEC+ output increases is yet to be felt and an oil glut may materialise in the coming months. Given that OPEC+ will... 17th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Odinga’s passing, oil prices drop, Nigeria inflation The passing this week of Raila Odinga, a prominent politician in Kenya, is likely to result in his party being less committed to the governing alliance with President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance... 17th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas ceasefire, oil slides, Tunisia’s unorthodoxy persists The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has, so far, remained intact, which could bring positive spillovers for the likes of Egypt and Jordan. More importantly, however, the war has fundamentally... 16th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fiscal tightening to drive growth slowdown in 2026 The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP... 15th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ plays it safe; China’s oil stockpiling frenzy continues The ongoing and sizeable build-up of oil stockpiles in China is helping to counteract underlying sluggish oil demand growth, and helps to explain why oil prices have not fallen as far as might have... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) OPEC+ undershoots, copper goes for gold OPEC+’s decision to raise its output quota by 137,000 bpd in November confounded reports of a larger rise in the run-up to the decision and provided short-lived... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Drone strikes, Russia’s oil sector & the upside risk to oil The oil market has largely shrugged off the damage from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure so far. That said, the damage to Russian refinery and export capacity so far, and... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
