Africa Economics Weekly

Worsening relations with the US, SARB rate cut

Both South Africa and Nigeria have seen diplomatic relations with the US become more strained this week, although for now domestic dynamics should continue to support a more positive growth outlook in...

21st November 2025 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

BI independence concerns resurface, Philippines corruption

The invitation extended to Indonesia’s finance minister this week to attend monetary policy meetings is not unheard of among global central banks, but the move will reinforce concerns that BI’s...

21st November 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MbS’s Washington trip tips the balance in US’s favour

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the US this week secured security, nuclear, mineral, and AI deals which will pull the Kingdom back from China’s sphere of influence towards the US.

20th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

Has France’s RN turned moderate?

As it has dropped plans for “Frexit”, scaled back its tax and spending promises and made overtures to business, the RN is worrying investors less than it did in the past. However, it is no more likely...

20th November 2025 · 16 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine

Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security...

20th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A guide to EM elections in 2026

After a fairly quiet 2025, the EM electoral calendar looks busy again in 2026. The run-up to votes could add to fiscal strains in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary. Meanwhile, there is a risk of...

18th November 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela-US tensions, Brazil’s rare earths, Chile votes

A military engagement between the US and Venezuela might push oil prices higher (although we suspect the move would be limited), lead to renewed migration outflows and harden pro- or anti-US stances...

14th November 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Orban enters election mode

Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even...

14th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Will the Orinoco (oil) flow?

Nicolás Maduro has probably never heard of Enya, but he will nonetheless be hoping that the US naval build-up in the Caribbean simply sails away. Although a US military engagement with Venezuela could...

14th November 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

New inflation forecasts, Bihar election implications

Headline inflation in India fell to a near 26-year low in October. Although this probably marks the bottom, we now think it will average just 3.0% in 2026, from 3.4% previously. That will allow the...

14th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

The risks from escalating tensions with China

There is a risk that the recent tensions with China escalate into a full-blown trade spat akin to the conflict around the Senkaku islands in the early 2010s. There are several avenues through which...

14th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Shifting geopolitical allegiances, IMF to visit Egypt

The meeting between Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Trump next week is widely expected to see the announcement of a new security deal and the US’s partnership in the...

13th November 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

Higher defence spending in EMs: the macro impact

Defence spending across much of Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East is set to rise in the coming years, driven by heightened regional tensions and US pressure on allies to take...

11th November 2025 · 13 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

What’s at stake in Chile’s election?

The latest polls suggest that a right-wing candidate is likely to win Chile’s presidential election on 16th November, probably leading to more pro-business policymaking and a tighter fiscal stance...

10th November 2025 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

Can Brazil become a major rare earths player?

Brazil has the second largest rare earth deposits on the planet but negligible production. Interest in rare earth mining in Brazil has surged in the past couple of years, although it will take time...

10th November 2025 · 14 mins read