US Employment Report Preview Labour market showing “some” further improvement Our econometric model points to a more modest 220,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, which would probably push the unemployment rate down to 5.2%, from 5.3%. That would seem to meet the Fed... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales, Household Spending Consumer Prices (Jul.) Underlying price pressures are not quite as weak as the stagnation in the ”core” CPI suggests. But following a renewed widening in spare capacity last quarter, the chances of hitting the Bank of Japan... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Can India capitalise on its demographic dividend? The UN’s projection that India will become the world’s most populous nation as soon as 2022 has refocused attention on the country’s remarkable demographic potential and the impact this could have on... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian labour market stands strong The continued resilience of the labour market in Australia is the main reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has become less inclined to cut interest rates again. Jobs growth remained strong... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will labour reforms get France working again? France’s Government has finally started to tackle the country’s weak labour market. But we are sceptical that the reforms so far will be sufficient and think that more ambitious measures will be... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Chances of rate cuts diminishing, but not disappearing The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is odds on to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% at the meeting scheduled for Tuesday 1 st September and the chances of further rate cuts are diminishing. A... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US economy not at risk from modest China slowdown Central European bonds and currencies have been remarkably resilient during the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. In contrast, Turkish markets have been hit by fresh concerns about the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update When will Finland’s unemployment rate start to fall? Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Finland’s unemployment rate start to fall? Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s fiscal consolidation hampered by low inflation Inflation dynamics continue to hamper Portugal’s attempts to deal with its huge debt problems. The country may need to implement more fiscal austerity as it struggles to pay down its debt. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy struggling to escape recession Since oil prices first began to fall last year, Canada’s economic performance has gone from mediocre to dismal, culminating in a mild recession in the first half of this year. With oil prices tumbling... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The very muted 0.1% m/m gains in both headline and core CPI in July will certainly give the Fed pause for thought in whether to raise interest rates or not at the next FOMC meeting in mid September... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime Office Rental Growth Hides Finland’s Ugly Truth Finland’s year-long recession has been reflected in weakening demand for commercial property space. Yet, as occupiers have traded-up, prime property has performed exceptionally well. However, we... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How fast can Spain grow? The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising unit labour costs a danger to the US stock market Weak productivity growth and rising wage inflation are likely to put upward pressure on unit labour costs in the US over the coming year, squeeze profit margins and cap the upside for the stock market... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Negative inflation will return soon CPI inflation probably held steady at zero in July, but the recent fall in oil prices suggests that the UK is likely to experience another bout of negative inflation before the end of the year... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
