Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jul.) The improvement in both current conditions and the outlook in today’s Economy Watchers Survey was the strongest since spring 2014. That said, the survey’s link with actual economic activity is often... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & Int. Trade (Jun.) The better than expected 255,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July will renew speculation that the Fed might hike interest rates as soon as this September, but we still think Fed officials will... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s labour market is hiding slack Russia’s unemployment rate has hardly budged despite the deep economic downturn over the past 18 months. There does, however, appear to be “hidden” slack in the labour market, one implication of which... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) Wage growth rebounded in June, and the headline continues to mask solid gains in hourly earnings. Nonetheless, wages are not growing fast enough to create noticeable price pressures. 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy shrugs off Brexit vote The initial evidence suggests that the UK’s vote to leave the EU has caused its economy to slow sharply. That has already prompted the Bank of England to ease policy, and we suspect it will cut rates... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Employment (Q2) The slimmed-down labour market release suggests that employment growth weakened a little in the second quarter. The RBNZ will be more worried, however, to see that there is still no sign of... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to reach new record lows We believe that a new era of stubbornly low underlying inflation will prompt policymakers to cut interest rates in Australia from 1.75% now to 1.00% next year and to reduce rates in New Zealand from 2... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bigger picture on inflation Australia’s inflation data for the second quarter provided something for everyone, but the bigger picture is that there is very little price pressure anywhere in the economy. This is why we believe... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jun.) Today’s activity data suggest that Japan’s economy continued to recover last quarter, while the labour market continues to tighten. However, the stronger yen is set to dampen price pressures further... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market remains in good health Our econometric model points to a healthy 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July. As a result, the unemployment rate probably edged back down to 4.8%, from 4.9%. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed edging toward a September rate hike The Fed was never going to provide a definitive steer on future rate decisions at this week's FOMC meeting, particularly not when Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) While small business confidence rose for the second straight month in July, it still suggests that Japan’s economic recovery remains sluggish. 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s announcement this week that it will inject more capital into local banks is a positive step, but the amount is still too limited to revive the ailing sector. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Shrugging off global and domestic uncertainty The early evidence suggests that businesses and households in Australia have not been ruffled by the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Australia’s close Federal election result. Admittedly, consumer... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market & BoE Agents’ Scores (May/Jun.) The latest labour market figures showed that despite the referendum looming at thetime, the jobs recovery remained in fine fettle in Q2. But this shouldn’t prevent theMonetary Policy Committee from... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack No signs of major stress in labour market Recent data from China’s labour market corroborate evidence elsewhere that the economy has slowed since the start of 2015 but that it has avoided the collapse that many had feared. Migrant wage growth... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
