US Employment Report Preview Temporary Payroll Shock There is scope for some of the weakness in July’s employment report to reverse, but the administration’s decision to revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for roughly 350,000 people in late July is... 27th August 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal tweaks, labour market holding up In a press conference today, officials from China's Ministry of Finance pledged to ramp up the pace of fiscal spending in the second half of the year. This will mainly come from better use of existing... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s bark will be worse than its bite With the RBA keeping up its hawkish rhetoric, financial markets continue to see another rate hike this cycle as more likely than not. We remain sceptical. Data released this week show that labour... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Despite some softness in recent months, we expect a continuation of the AI capex boom and a broadening of investment to drive above-consensus GDP growth, which should rise to 2.6% next year. That... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) While the economy gained momentum in the second quarter, we expect GDP growth to slow again in the second half of the year amid ongoing uncertainty around CUSMA negotiations. The combination of soft... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy has weathered the energy shock well as Japan has been able to secure sufficient crude... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (July 2026) With the labour market continuing to cool, we doubt that the RBA will tighten policy any further despite its recent hawkish messaging. 20th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Little chance of a big rebound in labour force participation It is likely that the participation rate will rebound slightly in the next few months, but the big picture is that population ageing and the crackdown on immigration will continue to hold back labour... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 26) Wage growth was weaker last quarter than the RBA had expected and supports our view that the Bank is done tightening. 19th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2026) The further falls in PAYE employment and job vacancies in July show that the labour market continued to weaken. This supports our view that the labour market is not conducive of second-round inflation... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2026) After regaining some ground at the end of Q2, China's economy lost momentum again last month. The silver lining is that the boost to manufacturing activity from AI capex continued to build, and that... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM wage pressures easing, but pockets of concern EM labour market conditions have softened further this year, with wage growth now back to or below pre-pandemic rates in many places. Inflationary pressures stemming from labour markets have faded... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Softer wage growth will comfort the Fed We would not read too much into the fall in payrolls in July, but the lack of wage pressures clearly reduces the need for the Fed to raise rates soon unless the price data next week deliver a big... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy gaining momentum The latest data show an economy gaining momentum. While that suggests we should expect slightly more hawkish communications from the Bank of Canada when it meets next month, the recent softness in... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jul. 2026) Although the hiring weakness in the July employment report has not been reflected in the broader set of labour market indicators, it is still likely to revive concerns among Fed officials about the... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2026) The surge in employment in July following last week’s strong preliminary second-quarter GDP growth estimate is further evidence that the economy is gaining momentum after a weak start to the year... 7th August 2026 · 2 mins read
