UK Economics Focus UK Fiscal Event Preview - Spending cuts now, but defence needs may lead to higher taxes and borrowing The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will present her fiscal update on 26th March against the challenging backdrop of geopolitical ruptures, tariffs threats and a stagnating domestic economy. We expect... 10th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Economic Weekly: The rand's shaky outlook, Angola's latest Article IV The rand may have rallied this week on the news that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed in 2024, but we think worse terms of trade, GNU instability and the associated risks in the public... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: German stimulus spillovers, Ukraine aid pause The prospective fiscal stimulus announced in Germany this week could provide some support to nearby trade dependent economies in Central and Eastern Europe. But with a large part of the spending... 7th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Fiscal policy and the ECB This week has brought a fundamental shift in Europe’s approach to defence spending and fiscal policy more generally. While there are reasons to be cautious about the boost that this will provide to... 7th March 2025 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Q1 fiscal tightening to reverse before long While the annual budget presented at the NPC implies an acceleration in fiscal expenditure this year, early signs are that spending has slowed in Q1, weighing on economic activity. Fiscal spending... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Defence spending, tariffs and interest rate cuts Germany’s ability to announce a larger increase in defence spending and fund it by additional borrowing rather than spending cuts elsewhere shines yet another light on the UK’s tight fiscal position... 7th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: South Africa’s 2025 Budget – Fiscal risks, macro and market consequences 12th March 2025, 4:30PM GMT After last month’s shock postponement, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is finally expected to present a 2025 national budget on 12th March.
Capital Daily Higher Bund yields probably here to stay The shift in the ECB’s tone today to acknowledge the increased uncertainty surrounding the outlook has pushed euro-zone bond yields up slightly, extending their surge over the past few days. Given... 6th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Could Saudi renege on OPEC+ plan as fiscal woes emerge? Saudi Arabia agreed with the rest of OPEC+ to proceed with increases in oil output from April, but the slide in oil prices and the news that Aramco will cut its dividend payment will test the Kingdom... 6th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2025) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50% today came alongside new language which shows that policymakers are becoming less certain about the future path of interest rates. Looser... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China's economic roadmap for 2025 The GDP target announced for 2025 suggests that policymakers are hoping to achieve steady growth this year, but we don’t think that the policy agenda set out today at the National People’s Congress... 5th March 2025 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany loosens the purse strings The agreement on a reform of the national fiscal rule reached by Germany’s likely next coalition partners suggests they will implement a significant fiscal stimulus of perhaps around 1% to 2% of GDP... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Initial thoughts on China’s NPC Chinese policymakers have stuck with an ambitious target for real GDP growth but have become more cautious on the outlook for nominal growth and inflation. And while they did deliver some increase in... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German fiscal announcement The announcement by Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, that the parties which are likely to form the next government have agreed to substantially boost defence and infrastructure... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
