Chief Economist's Note Key questions from Europe clients We have just returned from three days of client meetings in Europe where the biggest topics of interest were US tariffs, Germany’s fiscal stimulus, risks to public finances (including in France) and... 22nd May 2025
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Apr. 2025) April’s public finances figures showed that despite the boost from the rise in employers’ National Insurance Contributions (NICs), the fiscal year got off to a poor start. This raises the chances that... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA Budget: slippage, GNU tensions to resurface soon South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s third attempt at delivering the 2025 Budget should have enough support in parliament now, but it’s come at the cost of a slightly larger budget... 21st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2025) The near-term outlook for Canada is a little bleak. After a solid first quarter, we expect GDP growth to be muted as the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come weighs on exports, consumer... 21st May 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tariff revenue should largely offset new tax cuts The budget reconciliation bill currently working its way through the House of Representatives, which includes a permanent extension of the original Trump tax cuts plus cut-down versions of his... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we be worried about the UAE’s credit boom? Credit growth in the UAE has boomed, fuelling a sharp rise in property prices, particularly in Dubai. Prices are now at risk of a correction which, in the past, has fed into banking and debt worries... 20th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Third time lucky for South Africa’s 2025 Budget? South Africa’s finance minister takes his third stab at delivering the 2025 Budget on Wednesday. Disputes within the ruling GNU seem to have been resolved but this may come at the cost of slippage on... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Why the tariff truce hasn’t altered our growth forecasts The scale of this week's tariff de-escalation was a bit larger than we had expected. But most of the rollback had already been factored into our forecasts. And while the threat from tariffs has... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania and Poland at crossroads The polls ahead of presidential elections in Romania and Poland this Sunday point to diverging political paths for the two largest economies in Central and Eastern Europe over the coming years. A... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (May '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a... 15th May 2025 · 1 min read
Event EM Drop-in: South Africa’s budget – Third time’s a charm 21st May 2025, 3:00PM BST Our EM economists provided their immediate response to the South Africa budget in this 20-minute online briefing.
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget deficits in the coming years. This will support aggregate demand and is a key reason why ECB interest rates will stay higher than... 14th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Future of Europe – Is the renewed optimism justified? 22nd May 2025, 3:00PM BST The shift in sentiment toward Europe – from deep pessimism to renewed optimism – has been striking.
Europe Economics Focus A European defence revolution? Europe’s economy will receive a modest boost from the German-led rise in defence spending over the next couple of years. The bigger question is whether it is the start of a move towards creating a... 13th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the current optimism about Europe justified? There has been an increase in optimism about the EU in recent months as it has been forced to take more responsibility for its own security, has loosened fiscal policy and has benefited from having a... 12th May 2025 · 16 mins read
