Asia Economics Weekly Singapore’s AI budget, election round-up Singapore’s 2026 budget, which was announced on Thursday, signals a modest fiscal loosening for the coming year. The budget also placed significant emphasis on positioning the economy for the AI... 13th February 2026 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market... 12th February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Poland’s “Goldilocks” conditions last? Poland’s economy is currently exhibiting features considered characteristic of a “Goldilocks economy” – solid GDP growth, inflation close to target, as well as a current account near balance. And we... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices to cause Saudi bond spreads to widen If oil prices fall back as we expect, Saudi Arabia’s government is likely to run large budget deficits and see a sharper rise in the public debt ratio than is widely anticipated. The strength of the... 10th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Your questions on Japan’s snap elections answered Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has secured the largest victory for her LDP in post-war history in yesterday’s snap election. This Update answers the questions most frequently asked by clients. We will... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Three scenarios for the UK economy and markets if Starmer/Reeves are replaced This note republishes our three scenarios for the economy and the financial markets should Keir Starmer and/or Rachel Reeves be replaced as Prime Minister and Chancellor. In each scenario, gilt yields... 8th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political wobbles, dovish BoE, rebound in activity won’t last The dovish surprise at this week's Bank of England meeting, including the downward revision to the Bank's GDP growth forecasts despite the recent rebound in activity, leaves us more confident in our... 6th February 2026 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Local governments plan to keep tightening their belts China’s provincial governments have now concluded the annual meetings at which they set economic targets and lay out fiscal plans. They anticipate slower GDP growth this year and plan to continue with... 6th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA and the bursting of the precious metals bubble We think that the recent drop in precious metals prices has further to run, and the recent outperformance in South Africa’s financial markets has come to an end. But on the macro side, South Africa’s... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-India energy relations, Turkey CPI, CEE rates We are sceptical that India will fully curtail its oil imports from Russia as part of the US-India trade deal announced this week, but even a partial scaling back of purchases could add to strains in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will hike rates again in June The recent turmoil in Japan’s bond market seems to have prompted some soul-searching among policymakers in Tokyo and we remain convinced that a decisive LDP victory in the upcoming Lower House... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update How much of a buffer do government assets provide? Japan’s government holds more financial assets than governments elsewhere. While the value of the government’s domestic asset holdings could plunge during a crisis, a large share is invested overseas... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Lula go on a pre-election spending spree? The balance of probabilities is tilted towards Brazil avoiding major additional pre-election fiscal loosening (and the resulting backlash in financial markets). As a result, we think the Selic rate... 4th February 2026 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Update Insufficient defence spending plans won’t lift GDP growth The newly-planned rise in defence expenditure marks a much-needed shift from the Trudeau era but is still too small to sufficiently lift spending above 2% of GDP or generate significant multiplier... 4th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
