Asia Economics Weekly Korea: dovish central bank as political turmoil continues The Bank of Korea’s latest minutes highlight growing concern over the economy. Given the deteriorating outlook, we expect the BoK to cut rates by a further 75bps this year, a more dovish stance than... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff front-running will be followed by export slump The recent strength in export volumes seems to reflect efforts to front-run US tariffs. While that is providing a boost to activity now, it will only magnify the hit to exports once those tariffs are... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to become more hawkish Norges Bank signalled in January that a rate cut was likely at its meeting next week, but we now think it will leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. While we still suspect that it will lower... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) to hike its overnight lending rate from 44% to 46% today suggests that policymakers have been spooked by the market volatility yesterday and are keen to... 20th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our... 20th March 2025 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Kuwait debt law, Morocco interest rates, ceasefire ends Kuwait’s new public debt law is likely to be passed soon and should allow for a looser fiscal stance, something that shouldn’t raise any concerns given the debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 5%. Elsewhere... 20th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds, but further rate cuts still on the cards The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate on hold at 7.50% today, but a minority of MPC members voted for a cut and we do not think the easing cycle is over. If inflation continues to surprise... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE may pause the rate cutting cycle, but not for long While leaving interest rates at 4.50% today, the Bank of England seemed less committed to continuing to cut rates by 25bps every quarter. We had already been pondering this possibility and today’s... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Mar. 2025) For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here. The Bank of England was always going to continue its cut-hold-cut-hold pattern by leaving interest rates at 4.50% today but, in... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for inflation and interest rates in Brazil? Brazil’s inflation outlook appears increasingly worrying, and the headline rate is likely to hit around 6% y/y by year-end, which is a bit higher than most expect. That’s likely to trigger a few more... 20th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s next move will be to hike rates The Riksbank left both its policy rate and its interest rate forecasts unchanged at today’s meeting, suggesting that monetary policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future. And while policymakers... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB at the end of the cycle In the press conference following today’s SNB meeting, Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasised that inflation risks are mainly do the downside, suggesting that a further cut in June is possible. But we... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (March 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Two points on the Fed and the Treasury Trump Trade We still expect Treasury yields to rise by the end of the year, despite the seemingly reassuring news for bonds from the Fed on Wednesday. 20th March 2025 · 4 mins read
