Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why is inflation in Saudi Arabia so low? Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate has been remarkably soft relative to most of the emerging world in the post-pandemic era and we think it will slow further – and be weaker than most expect – over the... 14th July 2025 · 11 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in India’s consumer price inflation to 2.1% y/y in June raises the prospect of the RBI cutting interest rates further at its policy meeting next month. But given the RBI... 14th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania inflation rebound, Trump’s Russia statement Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While the consensus view is... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lat Am in Trump’s firing line, good news on inflation The broad-based falls shown in the CPI figures for June suggest that the inflation picture in Latin America has become a bit better, supporting our view that central banks in many places will deliver... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tackling overcapacity will require demand-side stimulus China’s leadership appears to be embarking on a campaign of supply-side measures aimed at tackling overcapacity and deflation. But local officials may balk at the economic cost of implementing them... 11th July 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone economy benefiting from tariffs The media focus this week has continued to be on EU-US trade negotiations as the pause on Liberation Day tariffs was extended beyond the 9th July deadline and President Trump threatened to send a... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA to drag out easing cycle as caution prevails The RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged at its meeting this week came as a surprise to most. As it turns out, a majority of the Board preferred to wait for the full Q2 CPI data (due by end-July)... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey back on track ... but risks loom large The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets earlier this year proved to be a blip, and we think the conditions are in place for the central bank to resume its easing cycle this month. But bringing... 10th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation has further to run Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (June 2025) There’s little in the Brazilian June CPI print that changes our view that last month’s hike marked the end to Copom’s tightening cycle. But a lot will now depend on how the trade dispute with the US... 10th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How vulnerable is Ireland to Trump’s policies? There are risks to the Irish economy from potential US tax policy changes but we think they are not as large as they first appear. The country’s large pharmaceutical sector should be fairly resilient... 10th July 2025 · 13 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.3% y/y in June gives Banxico room to continue its easing cycle in the coming months. But with inflation still above target and core inflation rising... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about deflation in Asia? Outside of China, there is no immediate threat of any other country in Asia falling into a prolonged period of deflation. That said, persistently weak price pressures are likely to remain a worry for... 9th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 16.8% y/y in May to 14.9% y/y in June amid a broad-based easing of price pressures and supports our non-consensus view that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun. 2025) Headline inflation came out of negative territory last month, with core inflation rising to its highest level in over a year, likely reflecting the effects of the consumer goods trade-in scheme. But... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
