Japan Economics Focus Is QQE working? Almost one year after the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) by the Bank of Japan, the policy is working as well as could reasonably be expected. However, despite initial signs of... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Today's data confirm that the economy is picking up speed ahead of the consumption tax hike. However, the first fall in inflation since the start of QQE shows that the BoJ still has more work to do... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains subdued despite currency weakness In aggreate terms, there is little sign that currency weakness is leading to higher emerging market (EM) inflation. With few signs of a build-up in domestic price pressures either, we expect EM... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about the weather? Extreme weather conditions have made the economic outlook in many countries less clear in recent months. However, experience suggests that the impact on GDP and inflation will probably turn out to be... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation likely to fall back soon With the yen broadly stable since last May, import price inflation has already started to moderate and will probably fall sharply in the next few months. As wage growth is still muted and spare... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in core inflation to 1.4% in January, from 1.3%, reflects both base-year effects and possibly some early impact from the weaker Canadian dollar. The latter is something that we anticipate... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan. 14) It’s possible that the unusually bad weather is masking a strengthening in underlying consumer price pressure that will only become clear in a few months’ time. Despite the fall to 1.6% in January... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Producer Prices (Jan.) The revamp of the producer prices data has made the release much more comprehensive, but it hasn’t changed the bigger picture. There is not much sign of any near-term inflationary pressure. 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African inflation to breach target range (again) South African inflation rose in January and the effects of a weak rand means it is likely to accelerate above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range again. This is likely to spur the... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices figures showed that inflationary pressures are continuing to ease steadily and so presented another reason to be upbeat about the outlook for GDP growth this year. 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Chinese New Year usually delivers a spike in consumer price inflation, however inflation remained subdued in January. 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) January's pick-up in house price inflation isn't that surprising when you consider last year's home buying rush that was triggered by fears of rising mortgage rates. Now that home sales are dropping... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's policy options limited by stubborn inflation Today’s output and inflation data from India were, in each case, a little better than expected but they won’t drive away the dark cloud that hangs over the outlook for the economy. Industrial... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb 14.) The revamp of the Bank of England’s forward guidance unveiled in February’s Inflation Report is likely to shift the emphasis back to the benign outlook for inflation and should therefore ensure that... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki holds, but will hike later this year Although the Icelandic central bank left its policy rate unchanged today, the Sedlabanki gave a strong indication that it is likely to tighten policy later this year. 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Chinese New Year usually delivers a spike in consumer price inflation. This year though, prices have remained unusually subdued. Inflation is unlikely to be of much concern to policymakers at least... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
