Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (October) The rebound in the flash manufacturing PMI in October indicates that industrial production should stop falling soon. 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drag from lower gasoline prices is only just beginning and will eventually result in CPI inflation falling from 1.7% in September to just 1.2% in December. Core inflation will remain higher, but... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf: Fall in oil prices unlikely to trigger another “lost decade” Concerns that the recent fall in oil prices could lead to another “lost decade” for the Gulf, similar to the 1980s, are probably overdone. The region’s large accumulated savings mean that most... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Tighter policy in Ghana to lead to further growth slowdown While Ghana’s authorities continue discussions with the IMF about a possible programme, the macroeconomic situation in the country appears to be getting worse. We suspect that the eventual tightening... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed shouldn’t respond to lower inflation expectations Since the recent fall in US inflation expectations is solely being driven by the decline in oil prices, it won’t prevent the Fed from ending QE3 or raising interest rates next year. 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why fuel subsidy reform matters for India and Indonesia Indian consumer price inflation fell to its slowest pace on record in September. With the latest data also pointing to continued weakness in the industrial sector, we remain of the view that interest... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) Recent market events, most notably the slump in world oil prices, will keep core inflation in Canada well within the policy target range over the coming months. Accordingly, we expect the Bank of... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Real wages to provide timely support to the recovery Last week saw global financial markets return to panic mode, as concerns about the faltering euro-zone economy, heightened geopolitical risks, the spread of the Ebola virus and falling oil prices came... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts still likely in Chile Interest rates in Chile were cut by 25bp to 3.00% last night and, although the accompanying statement suggests that we may be nearing the end of the easing cycle, we expect further cuts over the next... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Working nine to nine? Rapid growth in the UK’s workforce in spite of both demographic and international trends has been crucial to sustaining the economic recovery and preventing it from stoking inflation. Looking ahead... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates left unchanged as recovery trumps high inflation The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today came as little surprise. Inflation remains high but policymakers are undoubtedly wary of tightening monetary policy due to... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) & Final CPI (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus in August reflected a drop in importsrelated to weak domestic demand rather than a rise in exports. It still looks like theeconomy failed to grow in Q3 and... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.), Empire State (Oct.) & PPI (Sep.) The weak tone of the latest retail sales, manufacturing and PPI data is the first real sign that the stronger dollar and the global slowdown are taking their toll on the domestic economy. But it’s... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Although today's inflation data suggest that broad price pressures remain subdued, we aren't yet concerned about deflation risks. Rising pork prices mean the fall in food inflation last month is... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
