UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) While recent very slow growth in broad money and bank lending is not as alarming as it may initially seem, it should bolster the consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that it is still... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI increased in November, but conditions are still subdued by past standards. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining slow, the... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia CPI (Nov.) Consumer price inflation in Indonesia rose sharply in November on the back of the recent hike in subsidised fuel prices. Inflation is likely to rise again in December and then remain elevated until... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will other European central banks react to ECB QE? The likely introduction of “full-blown” quantitative easing by the ECB may well put pressure on other European central banks to follow suit and introduce their own unconventional measures in order to... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest euro-zone consumer prices and unemployment figures gave the ECB yet another nudge to take urgent further action to revive the recovery and tackle the threat of deflation. 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3) The rise in Swedish GDP in Q3 provides further evidence of a steady recovery and will help to alleviate fears of a Japanese-style bout of deflation and stagnation. But growth is not strong enough for... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria forced to hike rates, while SA & Kenya hold fire The slump in the Nigerian naira this month forced the central bank to take drastic action. Interest rates were hiked for the first time in three years and the currency was devalued. But given that the... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Real pay rises not big enough yet for rate hike While the dovish tone of the November Inflation Report suggested that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to keep Bank Rate on hold for a few more months, the case for starting the process... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How useful are Asia’s manufacturing PMIs? Asia’s manufacturing PMIs are closely watched as some of the most timely gauges of the region’s economic performance. In places such as China, Korea and Taiwan, we find that the PMIs are effective... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Following a surge in industrial output and retail sales in September, we are not too worried about the small drops in October. Indeed, the labour market remains tight despite sluggish demand. However... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How widespread is the threat of deflation? The drop in global commodity prices, coupled with a slowdown in global growth, will push headline inflation rates in a number of economies into negative territory. But, other than Japan, the risk of a... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC may be resuming FX intervention There are tentative signs that the People’s Bank (PBOC) has resumed currency intervention. Foreign exchange purchases by all financial institutions, a proxy for purchases by the PBOC, turned positive... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov.) November’s fall in German inflation to a five-year low highlights the absence of price pressures in even the strongest parts of the euro-zone. And while German unemployment remains very low, this... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation peaks in Brazil and Mexico Having increased steadily over the course of this year, there are signs that inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has now peaked. Data to the middle of November suggest that it should drop back in both... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf set to resist pressure to cut oil output Comments ahead of today’s OPEC meeting, playing down calls for a cut in the cartel’s output target, suggest that the Gulf States aren’t too alarmed by the recent slide in oil prices. Indeed, Saudi... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Deflation concerns spread across the emerging world Following sharp falls in commodity prices, concerns have started to mount that parts of the emerging world are about to slip into a damaging period of deflation. Although we think that inflation is... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
