UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: “Good” deflation about to return We expect deflation to have returned in August; indeed, inflation is likely to remain below zero for most of the rest of this year. But it is not something to worry about as its main effect will be to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks to our interest rate forecasts While the risks to our forecast that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand will eventually reduce interest rates to new record lows of 1.5% and 2.0% respectively (from 2.0% and 2.75% now) are... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Brazil inflation from 9.6% y/y in July to 9.5% y/y in August should mark the start of a steady decline over the coming months. However, as the minutes from last week’s COPOM meeting (also... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Global risks keep rates on hold again Although the MPC kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% today, it left its options open – saying that recent events had not altered its central view for the UK economy, while conceding an increase in... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt & Saudi Arabia CPI (Aug.) A further drop in Egyptian inflation in August to 7.9% y/y, its lowest rate in more than two years, means that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is looking increasingly likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Emerging Europe Data Response The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q2, to 3.8% y/y, provides some rare good news for the economy. However, we think this is likely to be temporary and higher inflation and tighter monetary... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Producer price deflation deepened last month on the back of a softening in global commodity prices. But the stronger-than-expected pick-up in consumer prices still supports our view that domestic... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Aug.) The fall in Czech inflation in August, to 0.3% y/y, was driven largely by steeper falls in food and energy prices and, as a result, shouldn’t raise too many concerns about the risk of deflation... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug.) While consumer confidence recovered in August, the moderation in households’ price expectations provides another reason for the Bank of Japan to step up the pace of easing. 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Chilean inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, coming on the back of the hawkish message in the central bank’s latest Inflation Report, suggests that rate hikes may come sooner than we... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big a deal is the Zohr gas field for Egypt? The recent announcement by Italian energy group Eni that it has discovered a “super giant” gas field off the coast of Egypt has been billed as a game changer for the country. However, as we explain in... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation on the rise Concerns over deflation in China look increasingly misplaced, with consumer priceinflation likely to have hit a one-year high in August and on course to rise further inthe final months of this year. 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Hungary CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish industrial production in July, coming alongside the fall in August’s manufacturing PMI, reinforces our view that GDP growth is likely to weaken in the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Favourable base effects will soon fade Inflation is likely to have edged down in August, due in large part to favourable base effects caused by the spike in food prices a year ago. But these effects are soon likely to fade, which will push... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
