Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Despite lower energy prices, the annual headline inflation rate climbed to 1.6% in December, from 1.4%, as the massive decline in the Canadian dollar continues to boost some prices. Core inflation... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.) The jump in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 2.5% y/y (from 2.1% y/y in December) was due largely to unfavourable base effects and, as a result, is unlikely to change the outlook for... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) Today’s Brazilian inflation data, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 10.7% y/y in the first half of January, are likely to give policymakers at the central bank another reason to hold... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will Australia join New Zealand in the near-deflation club? The higher starting point means that inflation in Australia is unlikely to fall close to zero, as it has done in New Zealand. That said, underlying or “core” inflation in Australia may soon follow in... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Bank starts contemplating more rate cuts While recent events have increased the chances that interest rates will be cut from 2.5% now to 2.0%, as we have been expecting for some time, we think that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Market turmoil not justified by economic reality Despite the prevailing gloom about the world economy, we think global growth will pick up from around 2½% last year to 3% in both 2016 and 2017, using our own estimates for China. Growth should be... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices fell by 0.1% m/m in December, principally thanks to a 4.0% m/m decline in gasoline prices and, with crude oil prices now below $30 a barrel, we can expect even bigger falls in the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales surprise, but outlook still grim November’s surprisingly buoyant retail sales figures provide a rare piece of good news for South Africa’s struggling economy. But we expect that rising inflation and tightening monetary policy will... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The fall in CPI inflation to just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, from 0.4% in the third quarter, could prove to be a game-changer for the RBNZ as it leaves the economy uncomfortably close to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stable despite market slump Sentiment towards emerging markets has worsened since the start of the year amid mounting worries about the outlook in a number of key economies. Nevertheless, the latest data provide no evidence of a... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jan.) January’s German ZEW survey confirmed that recent turbulence in global financial markets and the soft tone of the domestic hard data have dented investor sentiment. 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s consumer prices release confirmed that deflation is in the rear-view mirror, but there aren’t yet any signs which will worry the MPC. 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan data confirm economy is in meltdown Venezuela’s central bank has released economic data for the first time since 2014 and the figures are predictably horrific. With oil prices now languishing below $30pb, and the country’s political... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Lower energy prices will delay rebound in inflation Our key theme for this year, that the two big deflationary shocks of 2015 - the slump in energy prices and the surge in the dollar - will fade, leaving rising domestic price pressures to generate a... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Nov.) The strong rise in Peruvian economic activity in November gives the first clear sign that the economy picked-up in the final quarter of last year. As such, it looks like GDP probably grew by around 3... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Lower oil prices won’t reverse inflation’s return December’s consumer prices figures should confirm that the UK’s brief period of deflation is over, by showing the second consecutive month of positive CPI inflation. What’s more, the recent further... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
