Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed sharply in April, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. This will prompt policymakers to cut their key rate from 14.00% to 13.00% in June. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) In the context of the hawkish tone of the RBI’s latest policy minutes, the large jump in core CPI inflation last month paves the way for a rate hike at the central bank’s next policy meeting in June. 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in April nevertheless supports our view that policy tightening is likely this year. A... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Why has Brazilian inflation stayed so low? The recent weakness of Brazilian inflation appears to be due in part to persistently weak food inflation, but more importantly it looks like the large output gap in the economy has dragged down core... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC unlikely to wait too long After the sea of downbeat economic news in recent weeks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s decision to keep rates unchanged at its meeting in May came as little surprise. Of course, the MPC’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 3.0% m/m rise in gasoline prices pushed headline inflation to a 14-month high of 2.5% in April, but the more muted 0.1% m/m gain in core CPI suggests that the surge in underlying inflation in the... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Apr.) Brazilian inflation ticked up to 2.8% y/y in April, but underlying price pressures are still subdued. Taking that together with softer economic activity figures, we think COPOM will cut the Selic rate... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Aggressive tightening cycle unlikely The Philippines central bank (BSP) today hiked its key policy rate from 3.00% to 3.25%, but also left the door open to further rate increases later this year. While we think interest rates will be... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further fall in Egyptian inflation in April – to 13.1% y/y – should be enough to prompt the central bank to continue its easing cycle next week. We have pencilled in another 100bp reduction in the... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Today’s inflation data point to easing price pressures, consistent with our view that both consumer and producer price inflation are already past their peaks for the current economic cycle. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Governor, fresh style, same story While new Governor Adrian Orr’s communication style is clearer and more conversational than his predecessors, the outlook for policy remains much the same. The RBNZ left interest rates at 1.75% and... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further drop in Mexican inflation last month reinforces our view that the tightening cycle is over and that the next move in interest rates will be down. In contrast, the markets have responded to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Norway, Switzerland CPI (Apr.) Easter timing effects distorted April’s inflation data. Looking ahead, inflationary pressure is building in Sweden and, to a lesser extent, in Norway. Inflation is much more subdued in Switzerland. 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) The surge in base pay in March underlines that the tight labour market is now generating noticeable cost pressures. However, it will still take a few more years before wage growth is strong enough to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to resume accelerating Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Core price pressures are also continuing to build. We are one of only a handful of forecasters... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Another first-quarter blip The weakness in advanced economies early this year, which was largely driven by softer household spending, looks like a temporary setback rather than anything more ominous. Admittedly, economic growth... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
