India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The drop in Indian consumer price inflation in July was due in most part to a sharp fall in food inflation. Core inflation remained elevated. As such, we think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the crisis in Turkey mean for Asia? There is a good chance that the recent volatility in financial markets triggered by the crisis in Turkey will prompt Bank Indonesia into hiking interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday. For most... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s PMI data for the Gulf provide further evidence that higher oil prices and recent fiscal measures are supporting robust growth in the non-oil sector. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey suggests... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 0.1% is the new 0% The Bank of Japan’s decision to allow JGB yields to deviate by 0.2 percentage points rather than 0.1 percentage points from its 0% target suggests that long-term bond yields will settle at a slightly... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures continue to mount Data this week showed core inflation hitting a decade high in July, even before the impact of the recent tariffs has had a chance to fully feed through. Against that backdrop, the Fed is almost... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB won’t welcome franc’s safe haven boost The renewed appreciation of the Swiss franc this week as investors sought out safe haven assets will not have been welcomed by the SNB. But the franc is still weaker than it has been over the past few... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The acceleration in core inflation to 2.4% in July, a decade high, will be enough to convince the Fed to raise interest rates again in September. 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana Bank rescue, Mozambique debt talks The rescue of five small failing banks in Ghana should help to improve the (fragile) health of the sector and, in time, should help to support a recovery in credit growth. Elsewhere, the resumption of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Norway, Denmark CPI (Jul.) Underlying inflation is still fairly weak in the Nordic economies. But given increased capacity utilisation and rising wage pressures in both Sweden and Norway, we expect both the Riksbank and the... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA paints a near-perfect picture of the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new projections that the economy will be in an almost perfect state in 2020 suggest that the Bank is edging ever so slowly towards raising interest rates. Our view that... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The second consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven largely by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. There’s a long way to go until the next policy meeting, but... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: nearing the end of the tightening cycle The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today increased its policy rate for the third meeting in a row, and left the door open to further rate hikes. We think at least one further increase in rates... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) Egyptian inflation edged down to 13.5% y/y last month, a sign that the impact of the recent administered price hikes are starting to fade. But this will not be enough to prompt policymakers to loosen. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Today’s higher-than-expected inflation figures reflect a temporary boost from higher oil prices, along with the usual volatility in food prices. If anything, broader price pressures appear to be... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will soft inflation delay Riksbank tightening? Non-energy inflation in Sweden has been unexpectedly weak in recent months, prompting investors to push back their expectations of the first rate rise into 2019. But there is evidence of rising cost... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) Brazilian inflation rose to a higher-than-expected 4.5% y/y last month, but this reflects higher food and energy inflation which the central bank has made clear it will look through. Underlying price... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
