UK Economics Chart Pack Weathering the storm With 23 days to go until the UK leaves the EU and no resolution in sight, we appear to have reached one of the most intense phases of Brexit uncertainty. However, the latest figures have been a bit... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early hard data bode ill for Q1 World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in February even if, as we suspect, it rose a touch due to higher food inflation. As such, the RBI will almost certainly cut policy rates again, perhaps... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s core inflation concerns overdone The Mexican central bank’s recently released Q1 Inflation Report reiterated concerns about sticky core inflation. But we think these worries are overdone, and core inflation should fall back in the... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Feb.19) & Sweden Priv. Sec. Prod. (Jan.19) The continued lack of price pressures in Switzerland will reaffirm the SNB’s dovish stance. Meanwhile, private sector activity data from Sweden for January suggest that the economy made a weak start... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in Malaysia, but cuts are likely this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left interest rates unchanged, but with price pressures very weak and growth set to slow, we think that rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda. 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: chances of rate cuts strengthening February’s drop in inflation to within the target range, and the appointment of a dovish new central bank (BSP) governor, increases the chance of a rate cut next quarter. But the surprise pick of... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s optimism won’t last long The RBA remained fairly confident when it left rates on hold today at 1.50% but we expect that as the data deteriorate this year the Bank will take a more dovish view. And before the end of the year... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation at post-financial crisis low EM inflation slowed to its weakest pace since the Global Financial Crisis in January and it will remain lower over the course of the year in most countries. This is likely to prompt policymakers to... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat to central bank independence? Central bank independence seems to be increasingly under attack, raising fears that the success of central banks in anchoring inflation and inflation expectations in recent years could be reversed. We... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Turkey inflation data for February are unlikely to be enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later this week. We expect the... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Optimistic investment plans unlikely to be met The Annual Capital and Repair Expenditures survey revealed that firms expect to raise their investment by 2.8% this year. However, with the economic backdrop deteriorating since the survey was carried... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growing slowly, Italy and Germany risks The survey evidence continues to suggest that the euro-zone economy is growing, but that it is doing so only slowly, with the services sector doing all of the heavy lifting. The industrial sector... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.), Final Mfg PMIs (Feb.) The increase in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate, to 1.5% in February, will be of little comfort to the ECB given that it masks a small reduction in the core rate to just 1.0%. Moreover, the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Soft inflation points to rates staying low for longer Inflation has fallen across the region at the start of this year, and is likely to stay relatively soft in the coming months. One common driver of weaker inflation has been lower fuel inflation. But... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The Bank of Canada is unlikely to put a lot of weight on the sharp drop in headline inflation in January, given that it was caused by the notoriously volatile energy and airfare components. But if... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
