Canada Economics Weekly Further rise in inflation cements 75 bp hike The May CPI data showed that inflationary pressures remain acute across the economy, which reinforces our view that despite growing concerns about the housing market, the Bank of Canada will become a... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US recession fears won’t deter ECB Fears about a possible US recession have prompted investors to revise their ECB interest rate expectations down this week, but we have pushed ours up to show the deposit rate peaking at 2%. While next... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Too soon to conclude inflation won’t become more persistent It’s too soon to conclude that the weak tone of this week’s news on activity means that inflation won’t become more persistent. Our proprietary measure of underlying/persistent CPI inflation rose to a... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s financial markets routed Risk-off sentiment and the sell-off in EM financial markets have hit the Middle East and North Africa hard. Having been the top regional performer earlier in the year, the MSCI Arabian Markets Index... 24th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More 50bp hikes coming We agree with RBA governor Phillip Lowe that market pricing for the Cash rate looks too aggressive. But we also think the consensus is still too dovish. After all, Governor Lowe is starting to grow... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 2022) While inflation didn’t rise any further in May, it will remain above the BoJ’s 2% target until early-2023, while underlying inflation will approach 2%. However, the Bank won’t respond with tighter... 24th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears overdone The surge in interest rates, plunge in the stock market and weakness of consumer confidence have fuelled fears of an impending recession, but there is still little sign of that in the incoming... 23rd June 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (June) The stronger-than-expected rise in inflation to 7.9% in the first two weeks of June adds to the pressure on Banxico to fight stubbornly strong price pressures. We think Banxico will step up the pace... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: knock knock, anybody there? High inflation, falls in the lira and aggressive monetary tightening elsewhere are clearly not enough to persuade Turkey’s central bank to lift interest rates, as it left its policy rate at 14.00%... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest more frontloading is in store The minutes of the MPC’s June meeting – in which the repo rate was hiked by 50bps to 4.90% – show that combatting inflation remains the priority and suggest that tightening will continue to be... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The jump in CPI inflation to 7.7% in May all but guarantees that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by a larger 75 bp next month, particularly with inflation on track to accelerate to over 8... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack FX intervention from a position of strength The rupee has held up better than most EM currencies this month and the recent drop in FX reserves strongly indicates that this is in part because the RBI has once again ramped up its FX interventions... 22nd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) The rise in inflation in South Africa to an above-target 6.5% y/y in May is likely to shift the debate to a choice between a 50bp and a 75bp hike to interest rates at July’s MPC meeting. But inflation... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (May) The further rise in CPI inflation from 9.0% in April to a new 40-year high of 9.1% in May won’t prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rates further, but it may encourage it to opt again... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Where next for inflation in South Africa? Inflation in South Africa has been close to the top of the central bank’s target range in recent months, but the country has avoided the surge in inflation seen across much of the world. And there are... 21st June 2022 · 4 mins read
