Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA The fact that Kenya’s elections have, so far, proceeded peacefully have supported a rally in the country’s bond market. But with no official results available yet and reports pointing to a tight race... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s tax reform, inflation problems persist The new tax bill unveiled by Colombia’s government, which aims to raise tax revenues to fund the government’s social programmes and “consolidate the fiscal adjustment” doesn’t change our view that the... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Harder to see fears of a US slowdown in markets We think that renewed optimism about the US economy – which seems to have gained more traction in financial markets following signs that inflation is easing – is overdone. Our view that the US economy... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inverting to a hurting? Yield curve inversions have a patchy record of predicting recessions in Canada, but they almost always precede a sharp economic slowdown and the unusually deep nature of the current inversion makes it... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risk of a bigger and longer-lasting squeeze on real incomes The prospect of a bigger rise in utility prices in October and in the first half of 2023 means the risks to our forecast for CPI inflation to rise from June's 40-year high of 9.4% to a peak of 12.5%... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q3) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th August 2022 · 1 min read
US Economics More good news on inflation coming soon The drop back in CPI inflation in July wasn’t enough alone to convince Fed officials to change their plans for interest rate hikes. But we expect the better news on inflation to continue over the... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Not all price pressures are easing There have been growing signs that we are at the turning point in global inflation. Commodity prices and shipping costs are down both in y/y and level terms, while product shortages have alleviated as... 12th August 2022 · 12 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The bigger-than-expected drop in inflation in July is a challenge to our view that the MPC will hike the repo rate by 50bps again next month. But core inflation remains pretty strong, and the... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC turns less dovish on inflation The PBOC’s latest monetary policy report struck a less dovish tone, warning that inflationary pressure may increase in the near-term. We think these concerns are overdone and that inflation is more... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy crisis hotting up The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal... 12th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway faces its own energy crisis While Norway is not directly in the firing line from the reduction in Russia’s gas exports, it has now got its own problems with low water levels in its hydro reservoirs. This may add a bit to Norway... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Better news on inflation, as growth disappoints The recent national accounts data show most countries experienced a difficult second quarter. However, there was some more encouraging news on inflation – which already appears to have peaked in a few... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Jun. & Q2) The 0.6% m/m drop in GDP in June was mostly due to the adverse effect of the extra Jubilee bank holiday. Even so, the GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in Q2 as a whole and... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The decline in CPIF inflation in July will be of limited comfort to policymakers given that the core rate, excluding energy, jumped to 6.6%. We still think the Riksbank may raise its repo rate by a... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Demographic woes persist, tourists waiting at the gate An exodus of long-term migrants contributed to the 0.6% fall in Japan’s population last year but with border controls loosened since March net migration is bouncing back strongly. Even so, we still... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
