Japan Economics Weekly Window for policy normalisation not closing just yet While the economic data released this week suggest that the case for tighter policy is diminishing, inflation is set to rebound and wage growth will strengthen again before long. Accordingly, we still... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to moderate rapidly Inflation fell sharply in November and while the quarterly CPI due later this month will show that it was still above 4% in Q4, monthly prints should soon start with a 3. With the unemployment rate... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Air pollution threat, FDI outlook, CPI data Air quality levels in India have been the worst on record in recent weeks and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. That doesn't... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s IMF deal, Saudi’s fiscal position and bond issuance An expansion of Egypt’s IMF deal appears to be edging closer following meetings between its government and the Fund and US Treasury this week. A shift back towards economic orthodoxy, including the... 11th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Weakness in US asset prices unlikely to persist We wouldn’t be surprised if US bonds and equities fell a bit further in the near term. But, in our view, the Fed remains on track to start easing in March, pointing to renewed gains in US asset prices... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the... 11th January 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (December 2023) The renewed fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.6% y/y, paves the way for another 50bp cut to the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at the central bank’s next meeting at the end of the... 11th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will... 10th January 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased for a third consecutive from 34.6% y/y in November to 33.6% y/y in December. Comments last night suggest that an enhanced IMF deal is near, which is likely to... 10th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Dec. 2023) The fact that core inflation fell and the headline rate was unchanged in December confirms that Norges Bank’s most recent interest rate hike will have been the last in this tightening cycle. We think... 10th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Nov. 23) With price pressures cooling in earnest, we’re growing increasingly confident in our call that the RBA will start to cut rates as early as May. 10th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in December was mainly due to higher non-core inflation but, even so, the odds of Banxico beginning an easing cycle at its... 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.) & EC Survey (Dec.) The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have contracted than expanded in the fourth quarter of last year. They also suggest that while... 8th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and point to regional activity strengthening at the end of 2023... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
